核心高值耗材业务整体增长良好，公司预计TAVR 或将在今年底获批上市。1-3Q 心血管植介入收入16.69 亿元，同比+16%；其中冠脉收入同比+9%，结构性心脏病收入同比+55%。单看3 季度，心血管收入同比+14%，其中冠脉同比+8%，结构心同比+57%；外科麻醉收入同比+27%。Third quarter results fell short of our expectations
The company announced 1-3Q24 results: revenue of 4.785 billion yuan, -23.55% year on year; net profit to mother 0.803 billion yuan, or -40.7% year on year; net profit without return to mother of 0.734 billion yuan, or -42.91% YoY. Looking at the third quarter alone, revenue was 1.402 billion yuan, -28.41%; net profit to mother was 0.105 billion yuan, -73.12% year over year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 0.087 billion yuan, -77.19% YoY. Due to continued pressure on in vitro diagnostics, pharmaceuticals and other businesses, the third quarter results fell short of our expectations.
Development trends
The core high-value consumables business is growing well overall, and the company expects TAVR to be approved for listing by the end of this year. Revenue from 1-3Q cardiovascular implant intervention was 1.669 billion yuan, +16% year over year; of these, coronary income was +9%, and structural heart disease revenue was +55%. Looking at the 3rd quarter alone, cardiovascular revenue was +14%, with coronary artery +8%, structural heart +57%, and surgical anesthesia revenue +27% year-on-year.
According to the 3rd quarter results, peripheral sonic balloons and large cleavage balloons were successfully approved; the company expects that transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) products may be approved for sale by the end of this year. The company said it will adopt a more user-friendly price strategy, and management expects 2,000 implants for this product next year.
Medications and in vitro diagnostics are under constant pressure. 1-3Q medical device in vitro diagnostic revenue was 0.276 billion yuan, -52% year on year; pharmaceutical sector revenue was 1.476 billion yuan, -39% year over year, of which API revenue was -12% year over year, and formulation revenue was -43% year over year. However, the company said that formulation sales showed a steady trend of bottoming out, with formulation revenue of 0.253 billion yuan in the third quarter, +2% month-on-month and -63% year-on-year. According to the 3rd quarter results, management expects the formulation business to recover more than 1.8 billion yuan in revenue next year.
Innovative pharmaceuticals and devices continue to advance. According to the 3rd quarter results meeting, MWN101, the subsidiary Minwei Biotech's product under development, will soon release clinical phase 2 (obesity indications) data. The company is expected to begin clinical phase 3 obesity research early next year. Furthermore, the company expects that the two MWN105/109 molecules are expected to obtain clinical approval in China by the end of this year or the beginning of next year, and are simultaneously applying for US clinical approval. The company said that non-invasive blood sugar products are expected to be approved for marketing by the China Drug Administration two months in advance.
Profit forecasting and valuation
Considering that the pharmaceutical and in vitro diagnostic sector continues to be under pressure, we lowered our 2024/25 non-net profit forecast by 36%/30% to 0.987/1.253 billion yuan. The current stock price corresponds to 24/19 times the 2024/25 deducted non-price-earnings ratio. Considering that subsequent pipelines (including TAVR, non-invasive blood sugar management, and GLP-1) are gradually entering the harvest period, it is expected to provide growth momentum starting next year. We will still outperform the industry rating and target price of 15 yuan, corresponding to the 2024/25 deduction non-price-earnings ratio of 29/23 times, with a 19% upward margin compared to the current stock price.
risks
The impact of collection exceeded expectations, the competitive landscape deteriorated, new product promotion fell short of expectations, and internationalization fell short of expectations.
