国内外新签订单均有所下滑，在手订单仍将支撑业绩提升。前三季度公司实现市场承揽额165.62 亿元，同比下滑37%，其中三季度公司实现市场承揽额 40.44 亿元，同比下滑52%。前三季度新签订单中，国内业务新签合同额约112.36 亿元，同比下滑40%；海外业务新签合同额53.26 亿元，同比下滑30%。截止报告期末，公司在手订单总额约为 365亿元，继续为公司发展提供有力支撑。Key points of investment:
Company announcement: In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 20.426 billion yuan, down 2.56% year on year; net profit to mother was 1.745 billion yuan, up 27.11% year on year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 1.305 billion yuan, up 20.88% year on year. Among them, Q3 achieved operating income of 6.997 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.81%; net profit to mother was 0.548 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.05% over the previous month; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was about 0.466 billion yuan, an increase of 6.15% over the previous month. The Q3 results were in line with expectations. The main reason for the decline in net profit due to the company's high government subsidies in the second quarter, while the company's gross margin increased by 2.1 pct to 13.59% in the third quarter, driving a month-on-month increase in deducted non-net profit. Furthermore, in the first three quarters, the company's expense ratio fell 0.7 pct to 4.03% year on year, mainly due to a decrease in R&D expenses. However, the company's R&D expenses increased month-on-month in the third quarter, and the overall cost rate is expected to remain low.
The workload is progressing steadily, and production and construction tasks are completed efficiently. In the first three quarters, construction of 43 conduit racks and 28 blocks on land, the offshore installation of 29 conduit racks and 23 blocks, and the laying of 306 km of submarine pipelines were completed. The company's construction business completed a steel processing volume of 0.356 million tons, which is basically the same as the same period last year; offshore operations such as installation invested 0.0203 million ship days, an increase of 3% over 0.0197 million ship days in the same period last year. Overall, the company's workload is progressing steadily. The company plans to complete and put into operation 35 projects in the second half of the year. It is estimated that the construction and processing capacity may exceed 0.14 million tons, and the investment of more than 0.015 million ships. In the third quarter, the company's workload has completed more than half of the target for the second half of the year, and production and construction tasks have been completed efficiently.
New orders at home and abroad have declined, and on-hand orders will continue to support improved performance. In the first three quarters, the company achieved a market commitment of 16.562 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 37%. Among them, in the third quarter, the company achieved a market commitment of 4.044 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 52%. Among the new orders signed in the first three quarters, the amount of new contracts signed for domestic business was about 11.236 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 40%; the amount of new contracts signed for overseas business was 5.326 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30%. By the end of the reporting period, the total number of orders in hand was about 36.5 billion yuan, which continues to provide strong support for the company's development.
Offshore capital expenditure is still in an upward cycle, and CNOOC orders provide a stable guarantee. According to CNOOC's announcement, CNOOC's capital expenditure is expected to be 125-135 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of about 25 billion yuan over the previous year. It is expected that CNOOC's capital expenditure will remain around 130 billion in the future, providing a stable guarantee for the company's orders. As oil prices fluctuate at medium to high levels, global offshore capital expenditure is expected to continue to rise. According to S&PGlobal's forecast, global upstream exploration spending is expected to reach 581 billion US dollars in 2024, up 2.1% year on year, of which offshore capital expenditure is 201 billion US dollars, up 13.6% year on year; RystadEnergy expects the deepwater market compound growth rate to reach 10% from 2024 to 2027. It is expected that as global capital expenditure rises, there is still room for improvement in the company's future orders.
Investment analysis opinion: Maintain the 2024-2026 net profit forecast of the company at 2.015/2.514/3.048 billion yuan, corresponding PE is 12 times/10 times/8 times, respectively, and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: international oil and gas price fluctuations; upstream capital expenditure falling short of expectations; HSSE risk, etc.
