出货量方面，我们推算24Q3 三元锂出货量环比基本持平，磷酸铁锂的出货量环比高增。盈利能力方面，24Q3 正极材料价格整体下行，我们推算公司三元锂单吨净利仍在1 万以上，盈利韧性较强，而磷酸铁锂产品仍旧保持亏损。公司保持磷酸铁锂的出货量，保证产品技术的卡位，有望在未来抓住需求起量及技术革新的机会。客户方面，公司与国外优质客户合作关系稳定，利用客户资源加筑护城河。The company's 24Q3 revenue was 1.984 billion yuan, -52.10%/-2.01% YoY, net profit to mother 0.177 billion yuan, -68.66%/+0.53% YoY, minus 0.105 billion yuan, -81.63%/-6.48% YoY.
24Q3 gross margin/net margin reached 11.41%/8.69%, -2.10/+0.84pct. The decline in product prices led to a decline in gross margin, and the increase in net interest rate was mainly due to recovery of bad debts; during the 24Q3 period, the expense ratio reached 7.14%, +0.36pct month-on-month, of which sales/management/R&D/finance were -0.11/-0.49/-0.30/+1.26pct, respectively. Considering the company's leading profitability in the domestic industry and the rapid development of new products, we believe that the company's profitability is expected to pick up next year and maintain the “gain” rating.
Ternary materials are profitable and resilient, and the layout of lithium iron completes the technical card position
In terms of shipment volume, we estimate that 24Q3 ternary lithium shipments were basically flat month-on-month, and lithium iron phosphate shipments increased month-on-month. In terms of profitability, the overall price of cathode materials declined in 24Q3. We estimate that the company's net profit per ton of ternary lithium is still above 0.01 million, and profit resilience is strong, while lithium iron phosphate products are still losing money. The company maintains lithium iron phosphate shipments, ensures product technology cards, and is expected to seize opportunities for demand growth and technological innovation in the future. On the customer side, the company has stable cooperative relationships with high-quality foreign customers and uses customer resources to build a moat.
Accelerate the deployment of overseas production capacity, and Europe lays out new high-nickel production capacity
On the basis of deep cultivation of the domestic market, the company actively develops the European and American markets. With technical advantages and product iteration, the company has entered the international high-end NEV and power battery industry chain, and is deeply tied to North American car companies and leading European battery customers. NCM's high-nickel products continue to expand overseas. The company is steadily promoting an international high-end production capacity layout. Among them, the European project has a master plan of 0.5 million tons (0.2 million tons of multi-materials and 0.3 million tons of lithium iron phosphate), and the first phase of the project has a production capacity of 0.06 million tons of high-nickel multi-production lines, which is expected to quickly respond to the localized supply needs of international customers.
Maintain an “increase in holdings” rating
Considering the decline in the prices of diversified materials and lithium iron products, we revised the company's diversified materials and lithium iron profitability assumptions, and estimated net profit of 0.544/0.694/0.854 billion yuan (previous value 0.698/0.782/1.007 billion yuan) for 24/25/26. Referring to the consistent forecast of the company's 25-year Wind, the average PE is 22 times. Considering the high quality of the company's customer resources, high-nickel production lines are expected to expand overseas one after another, giving the company a 25-year target PE 34 times, corresponding to a target price of 46.58 yuan (previous value of 30.33 yuan), maintaining the “increase” rating.
Risk warning: Global NEV sales fall short of expectations; the company's customer development progress falls short of expectations; the company's profitability falls short of expectations due to increased industry competition.
