业绩稳健增长 ，维持“增持”评级。公司 2024Q1-Q3 实现营收、归母净利润、扣非归母净利润41.45 亿、10.20 亿、10.30 亿元，同比+13.39%、+15.18%、+16.35%；其中24Q3 实现营收、归母净利润、扣非归母净利润13.82亿、3.91亿、3.96亿元，同比+10.07%、+14.74%、+16.47%。我们预计受外部政策影响商业板块短期承压，致使Q3 整体收入增速放缓，而对利润影响较小。考虑到公司限制性股票激励计划的相关影响、以及院内外销售环境变化，调整2024-2026 年EPS预测为1.20/1.45/1.77 元（原1.21/1.50/1.87 元），参考可比公司给予2024 年PE 28X，对应目标价33.60 元（+2.14 元）。维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
Performance is growing steadily, and the anesthesia business is expected to maintain a rapid growth trend. Profit margins have increased, and operating cash flow is good. R&D investment has increased, and new products have entered the release cycle. Maintain an “Overweight” rating.
Key points of investment:
The performance grew steadily and maintained the “gain” rating. The company's 2024Q1-Q3 achieved revenue, net profit after deducting net profit of 4.145 billion yuan, 1.02 billion yuan, and 1.03 billion yuan, or +13.39%, +15.18%, and +16.35% year-on-year; of these, 24Q3 achieved revenue, net profit attributable to mother, and net profit of 1.382 billion yuan, 0.391 billion yuan, and 0.396 billion yuan, +10.07% year-on-year % We expect the business sector to be under pressure in the short term due to external policies, leading to a slowdown in overall revenue growth in Q3, with little impact on profits. Considering the relevant impact of the company's restricted stock incentive plan and changes in the internal and external sales environment, the 2024-2026 EPS forecast was adjusted to 1.20/1.45/1.77 yuan (originally 1.21/1.50/1.87 yuan). Refer to the 2024 PE 28X given by a comparable company, which corresponds to a target price of 33.60 yuan (+2.14 yuan). Maintain an “Overweight” rating.
The anesthesiology business is expected to maintain a rapid growth trend. The company's anesthetic business is expected to maintain a rapid growth trend as cores such as remifentanil, sufentanil, oxycodone, and alfentanil are released one after another. Furthermore, from July 2024, midazolam injections will be adjusted from Class II psychotropic drugs to Class 1 psychotropic drugs. After upgrading management, the market pattern is expected to stabilize, and the company's leading domestic position is expected to be maintained for a long time.
Profit margins have increased, and operating cash flow is good. The company's 2024Q1-Q3 gross profit margin, net profit margin, and net interest rate after deduction were 73.75%, 24.61%, and 24.86%, respectively, up 0.64, +0.38, and +0.63 pct, respectively; 24Q3 was 76.26%, 28.30%, and 28.69%, and +4.37, +1.15, and +1.58 pct, respectively. The increase was particularly significant, reflecting the improvement in operational efficiency. The 24Q1-Q3 sales expense ratio and management expense ratio were 30.19% and 4.31% respectively, +0.07 and +0.17 pct compared to the same period. Overall stability and good cost control. The net operating cash flow of 24Q1-Q3 was 0.911 billion yuan, +11.30% year-on-year, and the cash flow situation improved.
R&D investment has increased, and new products have entered the release cycle. The company spent 0.436 billion yuan on R&D in 2024Q1-Q3, +13.25% year-on-year, and major new products entered the harvest period one after another. The release of oxelidine fumarate is expected to continue to accelerate after it is included in medical insurance; the deuterabenazine tablet cooperation agreement reached with TEVA in February '24 is expected to complete a total sales revenue of 2-2.5 billion yuan in 2024-2028, which is expected to further contribute to the increase in performance. The research pipeline continues to advance. Currently, there are more than 20 new drug projects under development. Among them, NH600001 injection is already in phase III clinical stage.
Risk warning: risk of uncertainty in drug development; risk of policy changes.
