收单行业受政策影响，交易流水规模有所下降，9 月以来趋势向好1） 收入下降主要系受259 号文监管改造政策影响，加速第三方支付行业出清，行业交易流水规模普遍有所下降导致。前三季度公司交易总规模约1.55 万亿。伴随居民消费热情的提升，9 月份开始消费市场呈现企稳向好趋势。Incident Overview
The company released its three-quarter report for 2024. The company achieved total operating income of 5.57 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3%; achieved net profit of 0.82 billion yuan, which was the same as last year's overall; and realized net profit deducted from non-mother of 0.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8%.
Q3 achieved operating income of 1.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3%; realized net profit of 0.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%; realized net profit deducted from non-mother of 0.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.6%.
The billing industry has been affected by the policy, and the scale of transaction flow has declined. The trend has been positive since September 1) The decline in revenue was mainly affected by the regulatory reform policy in Document No. 259, which accelerated the clearance of the third-party payment industry, and generally led to a decline in the scale of transaction flow in the industry. The total volume of the company's transactions in the first three quarters was approximately 1.55 transactions. Along with the increase in consumer enthusiasm, the consumer market began to show a steady and positive trend in September.
2) By the end of the third quarter, the company's code scan amount increased by 6 percentage points compared to the same period last year, and the number of code scans increased by 3 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 42.2%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points over the same period last year, or related to the increase in the share of code scanning business.
3) The sales expense ratio, management expense ratio, and R&D expense ratio for the first three quarters were 5.0%, 8.4%, and 14.5%, respectively, an increase of 3.4 percentage points over the same period last year.
4) Minority shareholders' profit and loss increased by 0.1 billion yuan over the same period last year, or 5031.6%, mainly due to confirmation of minority shareholders' profits and losses of Guotong Xingyi Company and Shanhao Intelligence Company during the reporting period.
5) Net cash flow from operating activities decreased by 1.52 billion yuan, or 85.5%, compared to the same period last year, mainly due to an increase in accounts receivable at the end of the reporting period, a decrease in cash received from sales of corresponding goods and services, and a legal holiday at the end of the reporting period. The holding subsidiary Guotong Xingyi Company paid the settlement amount due.
Investment advice
The company announced a plan to repurchase the company's shares through centralized bidding transactions. The total repurchase capital is not less than RMB 0.35 billion (inclusive) and not more than RMB 0.7 billion (inclusive), demonstrating the company's confidence in future development. We believe that starting in September, the consumer market showed a steady and positive trend. The company's payment and receipt business benefited from the recovery in the consumer market, and the fourth quarter results can be expected. We expect the company to achieve revenue of 84.2/99.8/115.6 billion yuan in 2024-2026 (91.2/104.1/121.1 billion in 2024-2026, respectively), an increase of 2%/19%/16% (previous value 2024-2026 was 11%/14%/16%, respectively); achieve net profit to mother of 11.0/14.2/17.6 (previous value of 12.4/15.0/18.5 in 2024 to 2026, respectively) billion yuan, an increase of 10%/29% /24 % (previous values 2024-2026 were 24.0%/20.7%/23.1%, respectively), maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning
The recovery in offline consumption fell short of expectations; stricter regulatory policies by regulators such as the People's Bank of China; and increased competition in the industry due to factors such as the liberalization of third-party payment licenses.
