The company released three quarterly reports: revenue of 29.213 billion yuan in the first three quarters, -13.21%; realized net profit attributable to mother of 1.283 billion yuan, +17.18% year-on-year; realized net profit after deduction of 1.45 billion yuan, or +46.44% year-on-year. The company achieved revenue of 10.438 billion yuan in 24Q3, +0.60% month-on-month in Q3; realized net profit of 0.484 billion yuan and Q3 +2.10% month-on-month; realized net profit of 0.452 billion yuan without return to mother, and -34.97% month-on-month in Q3.

The company's Q3 deduction of non-profit declined, mainly due to: 1) metal prices were adjusted. The average price of Shanghai and tin was 0.264/0.26 million/ton in Q3, -1.55% month-on-month in Q3, 0.0235/0.0236 million/ton respectively, Q3 +0.35% month-on-month, and the average price of Shanghai copper was 0.0801/0.0752 million/ton in Q3, and -6.09% month-on-month in Q3; 2) tin products Production declined. The output of 24Q2/Q3 tin products was 0.0228/0.019 million tons, respectively, and -16.67% month-on-month in Q3, mainly because the company's tin smelting equipment began routine shutdown and maintenance on August 25, which had a certain impact on the current quarter's production, but did not affect the company's production plan for the whole year; 3) Processing costs declined. Among them, the processing fee for tin concentrate (40% in Yunnan) was 15,500 yuan/ton at the end of September, a decrease of 1500 yuan/ton compared to the end of June. The processing fee for domestic zinc concentrate was 1.180 yuan per ton at the end of September. /ton, down 1120 yuan/ton from the end of June.

Core product production and sales data: In the first three quarters, the company produced 0.2771 million tons of non-ferrous metals, +4.65%, of which 0.0642 million tons of tin, +8.81% year over year; 0.105 million tons of copper, +5.32% year on year; 0.1064 million tons of zinc, +2.60% year on year; 95 tons of indium, +43.94% year on year.

The world's largest fine tin manufacturer, with a deep focus on internal expansion and external expansion of upstream resources. The company is a leading enterprise in the global tin industry and has a strong global influence on tin, a country's strategic scarce mineral resource. According to the company's annual report, the company's domestic market share for tin metals in 2023 was 47.92%, and the global market share was 22.92%. The company's tin and indium resource reserves both rank first in the world, and the amount of resources it has as of the end of 2023:

The metal content of tin is 0.6464 million tons, and indium is 4945 tons.

Risk warning: risk of declining grade of core mining resources; risk of price fluctuations in non-ferrous metals.

Investment advice: Maintain an “better than the market” rating.

The company's 2024-2026 revenue is expected to be 389.19/409.41/413,17 (original forecast 385.42/404.72/412.24) billion yuan, year-on-year growth rate -8.1%/5.2%/0.9%; net profit to mother is 18.73/24.37/26.05 (original forecast 23.29/25.88/27.88) billion yuan, year-on-year growth rate of 33.0%/30.1%/6.9%; diluted EPS is 1.14/1.48/1.58 yuan, corresponding PE to the current stock price is 14/11/10X The company is the world's largest producer of fine tin. In the future, it will focus more on expanding upstream resources and building a world-class supplier of key raw materials for non-ferrous metals. Furthermore, we are optimistic about future growth in tin demand in the semiconductor and new energy sectors. The tin price center is expected to rise steadily. The company is expected to fully enjoy the performance flexibility brought about by the rise in tin prices and maintain a “superior to the market” rating.