The real estate market is expected to see a "warm winter" in 2024.
Data from the China Real Estate Research Institute shows that as of the 26th of October, the number of second-hand residential housing transactions in Beijing has reached 12,979 units. It is expected that the total number of transactions in October will exceed 0.016 million units, reaching a new high in 19 months; the actual transaction volume is expected to reach 0.025 million units, the highest in the same period in 8 years.
Meanwhile, according to a report from the Shenzhen Special Zone, from October 1st to 26th, the total number of newly-built commodity housing units signed in Shenzhen reached 10,030, totaling 1.0293 million square meters, with a daily average subscription of about 390 units, nearly 0.04 million square meters of houses, reaching a new high in recent years.
According to the monitoring of the Ke Research Center, as of the first 20 days of October, the average daily transaction volume of new houses in the key 28 cities increased by 11% compared to the daily average in September, and the transaction volume of second-hand houses in the key 16 cities increased by 11% compared to the first 20 days of September.
Industry experts believe that looking at the national market, there is still policy space in the future. Whether it is Beijing or other hot first-tier cities, the real estate market in 2024 is expected to experience a 'warm winter'. Under the influence of policies, the transaction volume will remain at a high level, and transaction prices will still be mainly stable.
China Galaxy Securities released a research report stating that under the influence of a low base, the year-on-year decline in cumulative sales area and sales amount of national real estate from January to September 2024 narrowed compared to the previous month. The monthly sales area in September increased compared to August. Investment has seen slight recovery. Since late September, various departments have introduced multiple policies for the real estate sector concerning demand, supply, land market, and other aspects. The bank believes that with strong policy support and the low base effect from last year, policy effects may gradually emerge: leading real estate companies demonstrating excellent operational management capabilities and having funding advantages, with the potential to further increase market share.
Real estate-related industry chain companies:
China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd (00688), C&D International Group Co., Ltd. (01908), Yuexiu Property Company Limited (00123), Greentown China Holdings Limited (03900), Sunac China Holdings Limited (01918), Longfor Group Holdings Limited (00960), Sino-Ocean Group Holding Limited (03377), China Vanke Co., Ltd. (02202), China Resources Land Limited (01109), and Agile Group Holdings Limited (00884).
Property management companies include China Resources MIXC (01209), Poly Property Services (06049), China Overseas Property Services (02669), and Midea Real Estate (03990).
Real estate intermediaries: Ke Holdings (02423), CG Services (06098)