投资建议：公司为种业“育繁推一体化”引领者，通过加强研发投入和科企合作夯实发展之基，通过外延并购多元化布局业务，打开未来成长空间。我们预计公司2024-2026 年实现营业总收入51.32/62.43/75.18 亿元，归母净利润3.06/3.56/4.12 亿元。以10 月25 日收盘价对应PE 分别为30/26/22 倍，维持“增持”评级。Incident: The company's revenue for the third quarter was +36.00% year-on-year, and net profit to mother's loss increased year-on-year. The company achieved revenue of 2.055 billion yuan in the first three quarters, up 32.26% year on year; net profit loss to mother was 84.33 million yuan, changing from profit to loss year over year. Among them, Q3 achieved operating income of 0.645 billion yuan, +36.00% year-on-year; net profit loss to mother was 62.1 million yuan, or -115.74% year-on-year, increasing the loss margin.
The company increased its overseas sales efforts, and gross sales margin declined. The gross sales margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 16.49%, -6.40pcts year-on-year. The cost rate for the period was 21.86%, of which the sales expense ratio was 9.95% (-1.11pcts year over year); the management expense ratio was 7.11% (-0.84pcts year over year); and the R&D expense ratio was 2.99% (-0.30pcts year over year). Net sales margin was -5.8%, -6.4pcts year over year. The gross sales margin for the third quarter of 2024 was 14.08% (-3.42pcts year over year). Sales expense ratio 12.59% (YoY -1.77pcts); Management Expense Ratio 8.36% (YoY -1.97pcts); R&D Expense Ratio 3.60% (YoY -0.44pcts). Net sales margin was -14.34% (-2.78pcts year over year). The company increased its overseas sales efforts and steadily expanded its market share. Overseas revenue in the first three quarters of 2024 was 0.351 billion yuan, an increase of 0.177 billion yuan over the previous year, an increase of 98.30%.
The business performance for the 2023-2024 business year was excellent, and we are looking forward to this year's performance. The company also released a business report from August 1, 2023 to July 31, 2024. The total revenue for the period was 4.489 billion yuan, +30.17% year over year, and total sales volume 0.798 billion kg, +46.93% year over year. By variety category, revenue from rice seeds also increased by 23.25%, accounting for 39.51%; revenue from grain crops increased by 78.91%, accounting for 23.47%; revenue from corn seeds also increased by 27.63%, accounting for 10.31%; revenue from wheat seeds also increased 25.28%, accounting for 9.42%; and revenue from lint decreased by 31.46%, accounting for 5.16%.
Investment advice: The company is a leader in “breeding and promoting integration” in the seed industry. It consolidates the foundation of development by strengthening R&D investment and science-enterprise cooperation, and opens up future growth space through diversified business layout through epitaxial mergers and acquisitions. We expect the company to achieve total operating income of 5.132/6.243/7.518 billion yuan and net profit of 0.306/0.356/0.412 billion yuan in 2024-2026. The PE corresponding to the closing price on October 25 was 30/26/22 times, respectively, maintaining the “gain” rating.
Risk warning: risk of agricultural product price fluctuations due to natural disasters, risk of diseases and pests exceeding expectations, risk of worsening international conditions affecting agricultural product circulation, risk of product promotion falling short of expectations, risk of agricultural policy disturbances
