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伊朗刚刚又传来重量级消息!市场避险情绪进一步降温 金价日内大跌逾20美元

Iran has just received heavyweight news again! Market risk aversion sentiment further cools down, gold price plunges more than $20 within the day.

FX168 ·  10:02

#GoldTechnical Analysis#24K99 news: During Monday's (October 28th) Asian session, spot gold fell again in the short term, with the current price near $2726 per ounce, dropping more than $20 within the day.

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(Source: 24K99) 15-minute chart for spot gold.

In fact, due to the relatively small scale of the Israeli attacks over the weekend, some market participants speculate that the tension may not escalate significantly, leading to a significant gap down opening in gold prices today. Gold prices closed up about 1% last week.

According to Bloomberg, after the Israeli attacks on Iran over the weekend appeared to be more restrained than many had expected, gold prices fell from near historic highs.

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(Screenshot Source: Bloomberg)

Previously, Israeli aircraft attacked military targets inside Iran last Saturday, avoiding oil and nuclear facilities. Iran did not immediately respond, and Bloomberg pointed out that the latest developments could reduce some safe-haven demand.

According to the latest news, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said on October 27 that Iran had already 'received' relevant information before the Israeli attack on October 26.

According to the Mehr News Agency of Iran, on October 27, while attending a meeting of the Iranian Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, Araghchi said: 'We received information the night before the attack that an attack might occur, which made us certain that an attack was imminent. We also exchanged information with various parties and took necessary measures before the attack took place.'

Araghchi stated that Iran reserves the right to retaliate against Israeli aggression and will retaliate against Israel at the 'appropriate time.'

According to Israeli media reports last Saturday, before striking Iran, Israel not only informed the United States in advance but also informed Iran in advance through 'multiple third parties.'

Furthermore, according to the Financial Times of the United Kingdom last Saturday, the Iranian military has signaled that Iran will not immediately retaliate against Israel.

The report points out that Iran is trying to downplay the impact of the Israeli attack. The Iranian Armed Forces General Staff stated late last Saturday that Iran 'reserves the legitimate right to respond appropriately in due time.' The statement did not claim retaliation but stated that Iran's focus is on supporting ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon.

Last Saturday, the American media website Axios reported that three informed sources told Axios that Israel had sent a message to Iran before the retaliatory airstrike on Friday, warning Iran not to respond.

A source told Axios: "Israel made it clear to the Iranians in advance which targets they generally attack and which targets they do not." The source said Israel's message was an attempt to limit the ongoing mutual attacks between the two sides and prevent broader escalation.

Chief Executive Officer Jay Hatfield of Infrastructure Capital Advisors stated that Israel's strike did not hit energy infrastructure, and the scope was limited. Limited attacks may alleviate concerns of direct conflict with Iran.

Harry Tchilinguirian, Research Director at Onyx Capital Group, pointed out that Israel's retaliatory action last Saturday was largely seen as uneventful and moderate.

Bloomberg reported that this week, gold traders will focus on several key US data points. Inflation and employment data may provide guidance on the pace of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, as strong economic data recently led traders to reduce bets on significant rate cuts. Lower rates often benefit gold as the metal does not pay interest.

On Thursday, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which is a preferred inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release October labor market data on Friday. In September, an increase of 0.254 million people was reported. This figure significantly exceeded the market's expectation of 0.14 million, leading to a cooling of expectations for a 50-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November.Non-farm employmentInfrastructure Capital Advisors' CEO Jay Hatfield said that Israel's attack did not target energy infrastructure and was of limited scope. Limited attacks may help ease concerns about a direct conflict with Iran.

According to cme's 'Fed Watch Tool,' the market has almost fully digested the expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the upcoming meeting, and believes that there is a 70% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve before the end of this year.

FXStreet analyst Eren Sengezer stated that ifnon-farm payroll datathere is a significant downside surprise, the market will reconsider the possibility of a significant rate cut in November or December. If the non-farm payrolls data reaches or falls below 0.1 million, the dollar may face heavy selling pressure and open the door for gold to rebound before the end of next week.

Sengezer added that conversely, if non-farm payrolls data is between 0.18 million and 0.22 million, it could be seen as 'good enough' data, and the Federal Reserve may choose to cut rates by 25 basis points twice before the end of the year. Finally, if non-farm payrolls data approaches 0.3 million or higher, investors may doubt whether there will be a rate cut in December. In this case, gold may face strong bearish pressure.

The price of gold has surged over 30% this year, reaching a historical high of $2758.49 per ounce last week. In recent months, as tensions in the Middle East escalate and traders assess the risks posed by the upcoming U.S. presidential election, the rally in gold has intensified.

Fund managers are also playing their part. Hedge funds are increasing their net long positions in gold, while investors are adding to their holdings in exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

At 09:25 Beijing time, spot gold was priced at $2726.43 per ounce.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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