Source: Zhitong Finance "Since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%)." With the rebound of the stock market, the old adage "Sell in May and Go Away" seems to have been a bad advice once again. Last month, the S&P 500 index rose 4.8%, the best May performance since 2009. The NASDAQ 100 index rose nearly 6.2%, and the NASDAQ Composite Index rose 6.9%. Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities Trading Division said: "History doesn't really support this saying. Don't sell, leave the market (go on vacation), and enjoy the good times." The rising trend is still to be continued? If history is any guide, it may indicate that the rise of the stock market is not over yet. Looking ahead to the rest of 2024, Scott Rubner, Managing Director of the Goldman Sachs Global Markets Division and tactical expert, pointed out the following historical background for investors. Rubner stated that the S&P 500 index has risen 10.7% year-to-date, and since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%). "Since 1950, the median return of the last 7 months of each year (June 1 to December 31) is 5.4%. In the aforementioned 21 cases, the average performance of the last 7 months increased to 8.1%." Rubner added. Rubner also pointed out that the NASDAQ index has risen for 16 consecutive Julys, with an average return of about 4.64%.

Steel stocks strengthened in the morning session, as of the time of publication, $CHONGQING IRON (01053.HK)$ rose by 51.72%, to 1.32 Hong Kong dollars; $MAANSHAN IRON (00323.HK)$ rose by 17.36%, to 1.42 Hong Kong dollars; $ANGANG STEEL (00347.HK)$ rose by 11.84%, to 1.7 Hong Kong dollars; $CHINA ORIENTAL (00581.HK)$ Up 9.02%, at 1.33 Hong Kong dollars.

On the news front, the China Iron and Steel Industry Association stated that it is accelerating research to advance capacity governance and joint reorganization. The CISA has started to expedite relevant research, conduct special investigations, and put forward a package of relevant policy recommendations to promote joint reorganization and improve exit mechanisms. On one hand, in August, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology suspended publicizing and announcing new steel capacity replacement projects to block the entry of new capacity; on the other hand, it is necessary to quickly establish existing capacity exit mechanisms, create conditions to guide the exit of backward capacity, and promote the direction of steel production towards advantageous capacity. At the same time, steadfastly promote joint reorganization to prevent a large amount of invalid capacity or even "zombie capacity" from being resurrected during the reorganization process.

CICC believes that mergers and reorganizations are important ways for some continuously loss-making steel enterprises to maintain their listing status. In the downward trend of the industry since 2022, some listed steel companies have experienced two consecutive years of losses, and the future profit situation may not be optimistic. With the improvement and strictness of the delisting mechanism, listed steel enterprise groups may inject profitable assets into listed companies or dispose of loss-making steel businesses to avoid the risk of delisting.

Editor / jayden