医美新品海魅月白已于2024 年7 月获批，基于集团自主研发的全球首创有机交联工艺，系国内唯一使用天然产物赖氨酸作为交联剂的玻尿酸产品，有望为医美板块提供新增量。2）肉毒：公司投资的美国Eirion旗下自主研发的注射型A 型肉毒毒素产品AI-09 I/Ⅱ期临床试验取得积极结果。AI-09 为液体剂型，相比于现有已上市A 型肉毒毒素产品普遍采用的冻干粉剂型，临床使用上更为简便。Event: The company released its 2024 three-quarter report. 1-3Q24 revenue was 2.07 billion yuan, +4.69% year over year, net profit to mother 0.34 billion yuan, +4.31% year over year, minus 0.32 billion yuan, +5.53% year over year; in a single quarter, 3Q24 revenue was 0.67 billion yuan, +0.22% year over year, net profit to mother 0.11 billion yuan, -13.13% year on year, minus 0.09 billion yuan year on year.
Profit analysis: Both gross and net margins are under pressure, and R&D investment continues to increase. 1-3Q24 gross margin fell 1.2pct to 70.4%, and net margin fell 1.3pct to 15.2%. On the cost side, the sales management/R&D cost rate was 28.7%/15.7%/9.1%, -2.9/-0.1/+1.3pct, respectively. The company attached importance to R&D investment, and the 1-3Q24 R&D rate increased significantly.
Pipeline update: Exclusive development of new organic crosslinked products, Haimei Yuebai is being prepared for launch. 1) Hyaluronic acid:
The new medical and aesthetic product Haimei Yuebai was approved in July 2024. Based on the world's first organic crosslinking process independently developed by the Group, it is the only hyaluronic acid product in China that uses the natural product lysine as a crosslinking agent, and is expected to provide additional volume to the medical and aesthetic sector. 2) Botulism: The AI-09 phase I/II clinical trial of the injectable type A botulinum toxin product independently developed by Eirion in the United States invested by the company achieved positive results. AI-09 is a liquid dosage form. Compared with the freeze-dried powder dosage commonly used in currently marketed botulinum toxin type A products, it is easier to use clinically.
Investment advice: The company's operations continue to develop steadily, and the medical and aesthetic sector Haimei Yuebai was successfully approved. It is expected to contribute more after listing. Water light, collagen, etc. are abundant in the research pipeline. We expect the company to achieve operating income of 2.9/3.36/3.92 billion yuan and net profit to mother of 0.48/0.58/0.68 billion yuan in 2024-2026.
The corresponding PE was 35/29/25 times, respectively, maintaining the “gain” rating.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downside risk; risk of policy changes; new product development falls short of expectations
