公司分红稳定，2025年多款产品有望上线，维持“增持”评级。我们预计2024-2026 年公司EPS 预测值分别为12.87/15.23/17.15 元，相比上次预测（14.56/16.81/18.70）有所下调，主要由于存量游戏流水继续下滑，而公司销售、研发相关支出未见减少。剔除极端值影响后，参考游戏行业公司2024 年平均估值水平，上调目标价至257.34 元（前值213.29 元，主要由于行业估值水平有所提升），相对24 年20xPE，维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
The Q3 performance was in line with expectations. The year-on-year decline was mainly due to the continued decline in stock product turnover, but the company maintained a dividend rhythm, and various new games are expected to be launched in 25 years, focusing on the pace of switching between old and new.
Key points of investment:
The company's dividends are stable, and many products are expected to be launched in 2025, maintaining the “gain” rating. We expect the company's EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 to be 12.87/15.23/17.15 yuan respectively, down from the previous forecast (14.56/16.81/18.70), mainly due to the continued decline in game stock flow, while the company's sales and R&D related expenses have not decreased. After excluding the impact of extreme values, referring to the 2024 average valuation level of game industry companies, the target price was raised to 257.34 yuan (previous value of 213.29 yuan, mainly due to an increase in the industry's valuation level), maintaining the “gain” rating compared to 20xPE in 24.
On the evening of October 24, 2024, Gigabit released its report for the third quarter of 2024, continuing to pay a cash dividend of 20 yuan for every 10 shares. In the first three quarters, the company achieved operating income of 2.818 billion yuan, -14.77% YoY; net profit attributed/withheld from mother was 0.658/0.613 billion yuan, respectively, or -23.48%/-25.54% YoY. The results were in line with expectations. 24Q3 revenue for a single quarter was 0.859 billion yuan, -10.36% year over year; net profit to mother was 0.14 billion yuan, -23.82% year over year, after deducting non-return net profit of 0.151 billion yuan, or -15.33% year on year. The company also announced that it plans to distribute a cash dividend of 20 yuan for every 10 shares to all shareholders, with a dividend ratio of 103% in a single quarter.
“Ask” mobile games were generally stable in the first three quarters, and revenue from the overseas game business grew rapidly. The decline in stock product turnover is the main reason for the year-on-year decline in the company's revenue. Looking at individual products, “Enquiry” mobile game sales were generally stable. From January to September 2024, the total sales volume was 0.881 billion yuan, up 7.71% year on year, while mobile games declined. During the same period, sales volume was 1.612 billion yuan, down 14.13% year on year.
The company's overseas business made progress. The total revenue for the first three quarters was 0.369 billion yuan, an increase of 99.57% over the same period last year, and no profit has yet been generated.
Follow that various reserve products such as “M72” and “M88” are expected to be launched in 2025. The company's agent products “Wangdu Genesis Record” and “Fengshen Fantasy World” were launched in the third quarter. The agent products “Echo of Vision” are scheduled to be launched on December 30, 2024. Reservations have already been opened in the App Store. Self-developed products “Asking Sword Eternity (code M72)”, “The Legend of the Fist Sword (code M88)” and the proxy product “100 Million Light Years” are expected to be launched in 2025, and testing has begun. We can also look forward to the self-developed products “The Strongest Castle” and “Code M11” in the long term.
Risk warning: Stock product turnover continues to decline, and the pace of new product launches falls short of expectations.
