Q3 光学膜量价齐升，光伏、环氧树脂盈利有所承压24Q3 公司电工绝缘/新能源/光学膜/电子材料/环保阻燃销量同比分别变动+50.2%/-7.6%/+7.3%/+29.3%/+32.7%， 环比分别变动+4.9%/-34.8%/+7.1%/-20.4%/-19.5%；均价方面同比分别变动-22.3%/-1.7%/+10.6%/-2.9%/-7.1%，环比分别变动-6.4%/+22.0%/+2.6%/+9.5%/-2.4%。得益于消费电子复苏，Q3 公司光学膜量价齐升，叠加原材料聚酯切片价格同比下降，预计盈利能力持续好转。此外受益于算力升级、人工智能、新能源汽车等新兴产业的高质量发展，公司电工绝缘、双马树脂等电子材料销量大幅增长，盈利持续向好。当前光伏、环氧树脂产业链供需矛盾突出，Q3 公司光伏基膜、环氧树脂等产品销量及毛利率均有所下滑，短期拖累公司业绩，未来随着公司产品差异化率提升预计盈利能力有望逐步改善。Q3 公司毛利率14.51%，同比降2.96pct，环比降1.61pct；销售净利率6.46%，同比降1.63pct，环比降2.34pct。24 年前三季度公司经营性现金流净额-0.43 亿元，较23 年同期增约8900 万元。24Q3 公司存货周转率5.54、应收账款周转率4.04，同比均有所增加。Report guide
The company released its three-quarter report for 2024, achieving revenue of 3.245 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.85%; net profit to mother of 0.236 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.77%; net profit after deducting non-attributable net profit of 0.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.02%. Among them, 24Q3 single-quarter revenue was 1.123 billion yuan, up 12.67% year on year, down 6.52% month on month; net profit to mother was 0.076 billion yuan, down 10.71% year on year and 29.99% month on month; net profit without return to mother was 0.051 billion yuan, down 23.03% year on year and 29.65% month on month.
Key points of investment
Q3 The volume and price of optical films rose sharply, and profits of photovoltaics and epoxy resins were under pressure. 24Q3's electrical insulation/new energy/optical film/electronic materials/environmental flame retardant sales changed +50.2%/-7.6%/+7.3%/+29.3%/+32.7% year-on-year, and +4.9%/-34.8%/+7.1%/-20.4%/-19.5% month-on-month; the average price changed by -22.3%/-1.7%/+10.6%/-2.9%/-7.1%, respectively. 22.0%/+2.6%/+9.5%/-2.4%. Thanks to the recovery of consumer electronics, Q3's optical film volume and price have risen sharply, and the price of polyester chips, the superimposed raw material, has declined year-on-year, and profitability is expected to continue to improve. Furthermore, benefiting from the high-quality development of emerging industries such as computing power upgrades, artificial intelligence, and new energy vehicles, the company's sales of electronic materials such as electrical insulation and Shuangma resin have increased dramatically, and profits have continued to improve. Currently, the contradiction between supply and demand in the photovoltaic and epoxy resin industry chains is prominent. The sales volume and gross margin of Q3's products such as photovoltaic substrates and epoxy resins have all declined, dragging down the company's performance in the short term. Profitability is expected to gradually improve in the future as the company's product differentiation rate increases. Q3 The company's gross profit margin was 14.51%, down 2.96 pct year on year and 1.61 pct month on month; net sales margin was 6.46%, down 1.63 pct year on year and 2.34 pct month on month. The company's net operating cash flow for the first three quarters of '24 was -0.043 billion yuan, an increase of about 89 million yuan over the same period in '23. In 24Q3, the company's inventory turnover ratio was 5.54 and the accounts receivable turnover ratio was 4.04, both of which increased year-on-year.
New production capacity for several new products is progressing steadily, and the company's future growth is 2 billion yuan. The “0.025 million-ton optical film for polarizer”, “0.02 million ton ultra-thin MLCC optical film technology improvement project”, and “3000 ton ultra-thin polypropylene film - line 1” have all entered trial production. The release of production capacity is expected to drive further growth in the company's performance in the first half of the year. Currently benefiting from the development of industrial industries such as computing power upgrades and artificial intelligence, the company's products such as Shuangma resin and active esters are rapidly occupying the incremental and import substitution market. In order to improve production capacity guarantee capacity, the company announced on August 21, 24 that it plans to invest 0.7 billion yuan to build a 0.02 million ton electronic materials project for high-speed communication substrates. Construction of the project has already begun. In addition, Chengdu Dongkaixin, a single subsidiary of photoresist, has also entered the trial production stage. The company's many products are worth looking forward to, and I am optimistic about the company's future growth.
Profit forecasting and valuation
The profitability of photovoltaic substrates and epoxy resins was under pressure, and the company's net profit from 24-26 was reduced to 0.312/0.462/0.643 billion yuan. The current price of PE was 25.6/17.3/12.5 times, respectively. The company is a platform-based new materials company. Many products such as high-end optical substrates, high-speed resins, photoresists, and composite copper foils are worth looking forward to, and maintain the purchase rating.
Risk warning
Production time falls short of expectations; fluctuations in raw material prices; brain loss; exchange rate fluctuations, etc.;