经营性现金流量净额达42.7 亿元，去年同期为流出（-15.9 亿元），环比+31.7%。Event: The company released the 2024 three-quarter report and 2024 performance forecast:
1) 24Q3: Revenue 73.58 billion yuan, +27.1% year over month, +43.7% month on month; net profit to mother 3.68 billion yuan, +21.9% year on month, +25.8% month on month; net profit without return to mother 3.16 billion yuan, +9.7% year over month.
Gross profit margin 11.8%, -2.0pct yoy, -0.9pct month-on-month; net profit margin 5.5%, -0.7pct yoy, -0.8pct month-on-month.
Net operating cash flow reached 4.27 billion yuan, with an outflow (-1.59 billion yuan) for the same period last year, +31.7%.
2) 24Q4 forecast: Net profit due to mother is expected to be 131.4 to 13.69 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 20% to 25%; deducted from non-return mother of 114.9 to 12.71 billion yuan, an increase of 12.8% to 24.8%. Corresponding to 24Q4 net profit of 40.7 to 4.62 billion yuan, median value of 4.34 billion yuan, +21.3% of month-on-month, +18.0% month-on-month; deducted net profit of 33.7 to 4.6 billion yuan, median value of 3.98 billion yuan, +26.3% year-on-year and +26.1% month-on-month.
Performance continues to grow, and foreign exchange affects the performance of deductions not returned to parent. Q3 As the peak season for new product stocking, the company's share of major customer parts, modules, and machine assembly products increased steadily, driving continuous revenue and profit growth. Among them, MR, the major customer was dragged down by lower sales. However, the main reason was that the company hedged the impact of the depreciation of the US dollar through hedging, and hedging revenue (0.34 billion yuan) was taken into account. Furthermore, through continuous innovation and optimization in underlying materials, manufacturing, etc., the company continued to optimize profit quality, and 24Q3 cash flow was +31.7% month-on-month.
Apple AI is about to go live. 25 years have been a year of innovation and sales for Apple. The 24Q3 iPhone sales volume is +3.5%. It is expected that Apple's AI function will be officially launched at the end of October, which is expected to boost sales of new models. The iPhone 17 in '25 was equipped with more mature AI functions+major hardware upgrades, which greatly benefited the company.
The automotive business is growing rapidly, and Leoni has joined forces to accelerate overseas expansion. Leoni is the largest automobile wiring harness manufacturer in Europe and the fourth largest in the world. After Lixun's acquisition, it will appropriately consolidate Leoni's production capacity in many countries and regions around the world to improve efficiency and accelerate the implementation of Lixun's automobile business in Haikou strategy. 24H1 automotive business achieved rapid revenue growth of +48.3% year over year, and the acquisition of Leoni will increase the growth rate of Lixun Auto's business.
Investment advice: Considering the impact of exchange and fluctuations caused by expenses, we adjust the profit forecast appropriately. We expect the company's net profit to be 13.5/16.8/19.7 billion yuan in 2024-26 (previously 13.7/17.5/19.2 billion yuan), corresponding to the PE valuation 23/19/16 times, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning events: Downstream demand falls short of expectations; new business progress falls short of expectations; risk that the information used in the research report is not updated in a timely manner.
