行业趋势：千亿市场需求迫切，智能化软硬件加速部署。1）安全生产需求迫切，政策护航有望开启千亿级市场，根据中国移动测算，2021 年我国智慧矿山市场规模约280.7 亿元，预计至2035 年达到1270.1 亿元，CAGR 约11.4%。2）智能化降本增效显著，下游矿企加速部署，煤企数字化+智能化投资充足，标杆企业智能化进展顺利。3）硬件：根据《关于深入推进矿山智能化建设促进矿山安全发展的指导意见》，到2026 年，我国煤矿、非煤矿山危险繁重岗位作业智能装备或机器人替代率分别不低于30%、20%，推动矿山机器人加速落地；4）软件：华为矿鸿致力于打造智慧矿山解决方案，旨在助力智能矿山迈向高级阶段，推动AI 大规模“下井”，同时盘古大模型具备精度高、训练时间短、样本需求少、参数量大的优势，有望加快我国智慧矿山落地进展。North Road Intelligent Control: Deeply cultivate the intelligence of coal mines and lead the new direction of smart mining. The company is a leader in domestic coal mine informatization and intelligence. Its products cover the three levels of intelligent coal mine sensing layer, transmission layer, intelligent application and decision-making level. In 2023, the company was selected into the national list of specialized and new “Little Giant” enterprises, and became one of Huawei's “Kuanghong” strategic partners.
The company's products are based on intelligent coal mines, achieve full coverage of communication+monitoring+centralized control products, and are widely used in various coal mine production operation scenarios. Furthermore, the company has a clear structure, deep cooperation with Zheng Meiji, and the equity incentive plan is progressing in an orderly manner.
In 2019-2023, the company's revenue maintained a rapid growth trend. 24H1 increased 17.14% year on year, and the overall business maintained a steady growth trend; the company focused on R&D and sales construction, and management advantages gradually became prominent. Although the product structure and business strategy affected gross profit margin, the overall profit side performance was good.
Industry trends: The 100 billion market needs are urgent, and the deployment of intelligent software and hardware is accelerated. 1) There is an urgent need for production safety, and policy protection is expected to open up the 100 billion market. According to China Mobile's estimates, China's smart mining market size is about 28.07 billion yuan in 2021, and is expected to reach 127.01 billion yuan by 2035, and the CAGR is about 11.4%. 2) Intelligent technology has reduced costs and increased efficiency significantly. Downstream mining enterprises have accelerated deployment, coal companies have sufficient digital+intelligent investment, and the intelligence of benchmark enterprises is progressing smoothly. 3) Hardware: According to the “Guiding Opinions on Further Promoting Intelligent Mine Construction to Promote Mine Safety and Development”, by 2026, the replacement rate of intelligent equipment or robots for dangerous and heavy duty jobs in coal mines and non-coal mines in China will not be less than 30% and 20%, respectively, to accelerate the implementation of mining robots; 4) Software: Huawei Kuanghong is committed to building smart mining solutions, which aim to help smart mines move to an advanced stage and promote large-scale AI “downhill”. At the same time, the Pangu large model has the advantages of high accuracy, short training time, low sample demand, and large number of parameters, which is expected to accelerate China's intelligence The mine landing is progressing.
Core competitiveness: Stabilize the leading position in coal mines, and robotics+mining hong+chemical create a new growth pole. 1) Smart coal mine:
The coal mine system is the basic market, and the product system covers a comprehensive range. The company is leading and comparable in terms of smart mine revenue scale and gross margin; 2) Kuanghong Ecology: As one of Kuanghong's OSV ecosystem partners, the company is expected to benefit from the penetration of Huawei smart mines, and its R&D+resource advantages are prominent; 3) Robots: the company has launched a self-developed intelligent inspection robot, which has been put into practical application, reducing labor costs by about 0.12-0.18 million yuan to improve quality and efficiency; 4) Smart Chemical: It is expected to become the company's second revenue curve , the underlying technology is highly portable.
Profit forecast, valuation and investment rating: The company's net profit to mother for 2024-2026 is estimated to be $0.243/0.305/0.37 billion, respectively. Based on the closing price of October 25, 2024, the corresponding PE is 17.93x, 14.31x, and 11.81x, respectively.
Beilu Intelligent Control has been deeply involved in intelligent coal mines. The product system basically covers all aspects. At the same time, it also seizes new opportunities for robots and mining, and expands non-coal application scenarios, which is expected to open up room for growth. First coverage, giving a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: AI big model development falls short of expectations, capital market sentiment falls short of expectations, downstream capital expenditure falls short of expectations, and public data used in research reports may be delayed or not updated in a timely manner.
