欧洲去库接近尾声，新兴市场贡献增量，25 年恢复30%+增长。欧洲主力市场德国户储渗透率高、意大利补贴退坡，24 年欧洲户储装机下滑15%至10gwh，但由于光储系统成本下降30%，对冲电价下降影响，欧洲户储irr 仍可观，因此预计未来恢复20%稳健增长，此外新兴市场贡献增量，巴基斯坦、乌克兰等地区需求高增，对冲主力市场放缓，25 年全球户储装机增长32%至23gwh，其中欧洲装机增长20%至12gwh。Key points of investment
The Q3 results were in line with expectations. The company's 24Q1-3 revenue was 1.41 billion yuan, down 53.7%, net profit to mother was 0.04 billion yuan, down 94.3%, gross profit margin 35.6%, down 0.3 pct, net profit margin 2.6%, same decrease 18.8pct; of these, 24Q3 revenue was 0.55 billion yuan, +12.3%/+16.7%, net profit to mother 0.02 billion yuan, year-on-year correction, +10.2% month-on-month, gross profit margin 33%, year-on-month +7.8/- 5.5pct, net profit margin 3.2%, +10.9/-0.2pct YoY.
Q3 Shipments increased by 30%, and profit levels declined slightly from month to month. The company shipped 992 MWh in Q1-3, down 40%; Q3 shipped 421 MWh, +40%/+30% year over month, achieving a year-on-year correction. Although downstream demand continues to be weak, the industrial chain is nearing its end. Q4 is expected to ship 600 MWh+, corresponding to 1.6 GWh of shipments throughout the year, a decrease of 15%. The price of raw materials declined in Q3, with an average price of 1.4-1.5 yuan (tax included), and the capacity utilization rate remained low. The profit per wh fell to 0.02 yuan, the ring fell by 35%, and there was limited room for the Q4 battery price decline. Subsequently, the profit level is expected to improve quarterly as the operating rate increases further, and the profit level is expected to improve quarterly, and the annual profit remains around 0.03 yuan/wh.
European inventory removal is nearing its end, and emerging markets have increased their contribution and resumed 30% + growth in 25 years. The main European market has a high penetration rate of German household storage, and Italy's subsidies declined. However, due to the 30% drop in optical storage system costs and hedging the impact of falling electricity prices, European household storage IRR is still impressive, so it is expected to resume 20% steady growth in the future. In addition, emerging markets contributed more, and demand from Pakistan, Ukraine and other regions increased rapidly and hedged the main market. Global household storage capacity increased by 32% to 23GWH in '25, of which European installed capacity increased 20% to 12GWH.
Expense rates have declined, and inventories have remained generally stable. The company's expenses for the 24Q1-3 period were 0.41 billion yuan, an increase of 28.2%, an expense ratio of 29.2%, and an increase of 18.6pct, of which the Q3 period cost was 0.14 billion yuan, -8.9%/-7.1%, and the cost ratio was 25.3%, -5.9/-6.5 pct; 24Q1-3 net operating cash flow was 0.67 billion yuan, a decrease of 41.1%, of which Q3 operating cash flow was 0.21 billion yuan, -619.2% /- 17.3%; 24Q1-3 capital expenditure was 0.35 billion yuan, a decrease of 66.2%, of which Q3 capital expenditure was 0.12 billion yuan, -55.5%/23.3% year over month; inventory at the end of 24Q3 was 0.71 billion yuan, 1% compared to the beginning of the year.
Profit forecast and investment rating: Considering that downstream demand fell short of expectations, we lowered the company's net profit to 0.08/0.22/0.47 billion yuan in 24-26 (previously estimated 0.1/0.31/0.5 billion yuan), -84%/+159%/+116%, corresponding PE was 149x/58x/27x. Considering that the company has channel advantages in European households, new products such as sodium electricity are expected to be released in the future, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Downstream demand falls short of expectations, and industry competition intensifies.
