Union Pacific Corporation (NYSE:UNP) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 5.7% to US$230 in the week after its latest third-quarter results. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of US$6.1b and statutory earnings per share of US$2.75 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Union Pacific is executing in line with expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
After the latest results, the 24 analysts covering Union Pacific are now predicting revenues of US$25.4b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a credible 4.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to expand 11% to US$12.18. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$25.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$12.37 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$258, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Union Pacific, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$283 and the most bearish at US$215 per share. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Union Pacific's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Union Pacific'shistorical trends, as the 3.5% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 4.3% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 8.0% per year. So it's pretty clear that Union Pacific is expected to grow slower than similar companies in the same industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Union Pacific's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$258, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Union Pacific. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Union Pacific analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Union Pacific that we have uncovered.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
