维持增持评级 ，下调目标价至 8.26（-5.63）元。2023 年由于国内宏观经济处于修复阶段，行业建设需求处于恢复期，因此公司的业绩短期承压但长期依然向好，预计公司2024-2026 年归母净利润分别为2.05（-2.99）/2.96（-3.77）/3.83 亿元，EPS 分别为0.17（-0.26）/ 0.25（-0.32）/0.33 元，通过选用PE 和PS 两种估值，最终给予公司2025 年32.9 倍PE，下调目标价至8.26 元。Introduction to this report:
The company's overall performance is in line with market expectations. Losses in the first three quarters continued to narrow, losses were reversed in Q3, and the cost side was effectively controlled. As the company continues to innovate in various fields to respond to new needs, I am optimistic about the company's long-term development space.
Key points of investment:
The increase rating was maintained, and the target price was lowered to $8.26 (-5.63). In 2023, due to the domestic macroeconomic recovery phase and industry construction demand in the recovery period, the company's performance is under pressure in the short term but still improving in the long term. The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is 2.05 (-2.99) /2.96 (-3.77) /0.383 billion yuan, respectively, and EPS is 0.17 (-0.26)/0.25 (-0.32) /0.33 yuan, respectively. By selecting PE and PS, the company will finally be given 32.9 times PE in 2025. The target price was lowered to $8.26.
In Q3, losses were reversed in a single quarter, and losses continued to narrow in the first three quarters. The company achieved revenue of 1.582 billion yuan (YOY -3.98%) and net profit to mother of -0.169 billion yuan (YOY +31.83%) in the first three quarters of 2024, and the loss narrowed sharply; Q3 saw a slight increase in revenue in a single quarter and turned a loss into a profit. 2024Q3 achieved operating income of 0.709 billion yuan (YOY +10.21%), and net profit to mother was 0.036 billion yuan (Y0Y +200.73%). The main companies continued to push for cost reduction Efficiency was increased, effective control was achieved on the cost side, and the company's overall performance was basically in line with expectations.
The company continues to improve quality and efficiency, and the cost control effect is obvious. The company's total expenses for the third quarter of 2024 decreased 10.15% year on year, and total expenses for the first three quarters decreased by 5.26% year on year. Among them, the company's early layout of new directions and technology was basically completed, R&D expenses decreased 8.05% year on year; management expenses decreased 24.18% year on year; the company continued to maintain investment in marketing, and sales expenses increased 3.56% year on year. In terms of cost rates, the company's expense ratio for the first three quarters was 86.16%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.39 pct, which mainly contributed significantly to the reduction in the management fee ratio of 4.24 pct to 44.25%.
The company continues to strengthen technological innovation capabilities and respond quickly to new needs and new scenarios. In order to respond quickly to market demand, in 2024, the company continuously upgraded basic hardware platform capabilities, launched a CPU+GPU heterogeneous hardware platform to support NVIDIA and domestic GPUs to provide resource support for secure models and computing power platforms; the Tianwen Big Model System released by the company fully empowers products and solutions. The Tianwen Big Model System is an AI security brain. It provides automated research and judgment, and provides large model application services for security products in scenarios such as threat detection, secure operation, knowledge question and answer, and computing power management.
Risk warning: Orders for innovative products fall short of expectations, and industry competition increases risk.
