去年大额订单执行导致收入基数较高，导致收入下滑，同时毛利率提升。2024 前三季度收入80.47 亿元，yoy-8.10%；单三季度收入30.90 亿元，yoy-7.38%，主要因为：1）2023 年KOC 的EPC 大额订单执行，油气工程项目确认收入较多；2）海运时间延迟等原因影响收入确认时间，公司设备交付周期一般较长，超过6 个月，设备交付节奏对公司收入确认的金额影响较大。每年四季度是公司收入的冲刺阶段，全年有望扭转收入的下滑趋势。毛利率方面，由于收入结构改善，高毛利率的业务占比提升，毛利率显著提升。2024前三季度毛利率35.02%，yoy+1.51pct；单三季度毛利率33.71%，yoy+3.74pct。Incident: The company released its 2024 three-quarter report, and net profit to mother was slightly lower than expected. Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 8.047 billion yuan, yoy -8.10%; net profit attributable to mother was 1.598 billion yuan, yoy +2.21%; net profit not attributable to mother was 1.397 billion yuan, yoy -8.66%.
Revenue for the third quarter of a single quarter was 3.09 billion yuan, yoy -7.38%; net profit to mother was 0.51 billion yuan, yoy -2.04%; net profit without return to mother was 0.477 billion yuan, yoy -6.74%.
Company reviews:
The execution of large orders last year led to a high revenue base, leading to a decline in revenue and an increase in gross margin. Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 8.047 billion yuan, yoy -8.10%; revenue for the third quarter of a single quarter was 3.09 billion yuan, yoy -7.38%, mainly due to: 1) the execution of KOC's large EPC orders in 2023, and the confirmation revenue for oil and gas projects; 2) delays in shipping time affect revenue recognition time. The company's equipment delivery cycle is generally long, more than 6 months, and the pace of equipment delivery has a great impact on the amount of revenue recognition for the company. The fourth quarter of every year is a sprint phase for the company's revenue, which is expected to reverse the downward trend in revenue throughout the year. In terms of gross margin, due to improvements in the revenue structure, the share of businesses with high gross margins has increased, and gross margin has increased significantly. The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 35.02%, yoy+1.51pct; the gross profit margin for the third quarter of a single quarter was 33.71%, yoy+3.74pct.
After excluding the effects of exchange gains and losses, the company's net profit to mother increased. The decline in profit in the first three quarters and the third quarter was mainly affected by exchange gains and losses. Excluding exchange gains and losses, net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 was 1.68 billion yuan, up 11.0% year on year; net profit to mother for the third quarter of 2024 was 0.62 billion yuan, up 9.9% year on year.
Overseas business expansion and order acquisition have led to a slight increase in pre-cost, sales and management expense ratios, and the cost rate is expected to return to stability after the revenue is realized in the future. The sales, management, R&D, and finance expense rates for the first three quarters of 2024 were 4.71%, 4.17%, 3.96%, and 0.60%, respectively, +0.90, +0.56, +0.69, and +1.50pct, respectively, with a total cost rate of 13.44%, yoy+3.65pct; single Q3 sales, management, R&D, and finance expenses rates were 4.84%, 3.96%, 3.74%, and 2.87%, respectively, +1.87pct, +1.87pct, total cost rate 15.41% , yoy+4.62pct.
There are plenty of orders in hand, and orders worth 2.2 billion yuan were received in the third quarter. According to the three-quarter report, the company's contract debt was 1.495 billion yuan, up 68% year-on-year and 46% month-on-month, indicating that the company was full of new orders and an increase in the share of overseas orders. Furthermore, on September 25, the company and the Bahrain National Petroleum Company signed 7 general contracting projects for gas pressurization stations, totaling 0.316 billion US dollars (about 2.2 billion yuan), covering a full range of construction and services from overall project design, procurement, equipment supply, construction, commissioning and trial operation. The total construction period of the project is 34 months. The company's expansion in the Middle East market was further deepened.
Maintain profit forecasts and “buy” ratings. Looking ahead to the whole year, the company has plenty of orders in hand, the overseas oil service market is booming, the company will further advance its international strategy, and overseas contributions will continue to increase. The net profit forecast for 24-26 is 2.793, 3.263, and 3.827 billion, corresponding to PE of 12, 11, and 9X, which is historically low in valuation and maintains a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the risk of large fluctuations in international oil prices, the risk that the pace of order delivery falls short of expectations, and the risk of adverse overseas expansion.
