According to the data from the Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Institute, as of October 26th, the number of second-hand residential housing units signed in Beijing has reached 12,979, and it is expected that the total number of signings for October will exceed 0.016 million units, hitting a new high in 19 months; the actual transactions are estimated to reach 0.025 million units, the highest in the same period in 8 years.

Meanwhile, according to a report from the Shenzhen Special Zone, from October 1st to 26th, the total number of newly-built commodity housing units signed in Shenzhen reached 10,030, totaling 1.0293 million square meters, with a daily average subscription of about 390 units, nearly 0.04 million square meters of houses, reaching a new high in recent years.

According to the monitoring of the Ke Research Center, as of the first 20 days of October, the average daily transaction volume of new houses in the key 28 cities increased by 11% compared to the daily average in September, and the transaction volume of second-hand houses in the key 16 cities increased by 11% compared to the first 20 days of September.

Industry experts believe that looking at the national market, there is still policy space in the future. Whether it is Beijing or other hot first-tier cities, the real estate market in 2024 is expected to experience a 'warm winter'. Under the influence of policies, the transaction volume will remain at a high level, and transaction prices will still be mainly stable.

Beijing's second-hand housing transactions have hit a new high.

Since the new policies on September 30th, the transaction volume in the Beijing property market has continued to heat up during the National Day holiday.

Statistical data from the Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Institute shows that as of October 26th, the number of second-hand residential housing units signed in Beijing has reached 12,979, a 21.24% increase from the same period in September, and a 53.09% increase from the same period last year; the actual transactions have exceeded 0.021 million units, a year-on-year increase of over 150%. It is expected that the total number of signings for October will exceed 0.016 million units, reaching the highest value in 19 consecutive months; the actual market transactions are expected to reach 0.025 million units, the highest value in the same period for 8 consecutive years since 2017.

Chief analyst Zhang Dawei of China Real Estate pointed out that in the first 26 days of October, the trading volume in the Beijing property market reached the highest point in the same period in recent years, with the actual trading volume of second-hand houses exceeding 0.02 million units, a year-on-year increase of over 150%, and the trading volume of new residential buildings also nearly doubling year-on-year. At the same time, prices have shown signs of stabilizing, with some areas experiencing the first increase in second-hand house prices in 2 years.

"Whether it's new or second-hand homes, the actual overall transactions reflect a trend of increasing volume and stable prices. In the previous period, transactions were mainly driven by price adjustments, especially in new residential buildings, with most transactions concentrated in projects with significant price adjustments in small quantities." Zhang Dawei said that in the previous period, the relatively slow-selling new residential projects are still undergoing significant price adjustments.

Zhang Dawei stated that the first to heat up in Beijing's second-hand housing market are the affordable housing units priced at less than 4 million yuan, especially the 'old dilapidated small units'. Due to the previous price adjustments, there have been more transactions. The '9.30' new policy has mainly affected first-time home buyers of affordable housing units, combined with the recent interest rate cuts, the overall market demand remains strong. In recent days, in some areas particularly those with significant previous price adjustments, there have been signs of slight increases in transaction prices for second-hand houses.

Shenzhen's new home sales broke 0.01 million units ahead of schedule.

After the new real estate policy was introduced in Shenzhen on September 29th, market activity has significantly increased.

According to Shenzhen Special Zone Report, as per statistics, from October 1st to 26th, the entire city of Shenzhen signed contracts for 10,030 new commercial residential units, totaling 1.0293 million square meters, with an average daily signing volume of approximately 390 units and nearly 0.04 million square meters of housing. This marks a new high in recent years for the trading volume in Shenzhen's new home market.

Not only has the new home signing volume increased significantly, but the second-hand housing market in Shenzhen remains robust. According to the Shenzhen Real Estate Intermediary Association, from October 7th to October 13th, a total of 2316 second-hand houses (including self-service) were recorded citywide, an increase of 649.5% compared to the previous period. From October 14th to October 20th, a total of 2106 second-hand houses (including self-service) were recorded citywide, showing a slight decrease in chain ratio but still exceeding 2000 units in absolute terms.

The Shenzhen Real Estate Intermediary Association stated that the second-hand housing market in Shenzhen continues to maintain a positive development momentum, with the effects of real estate policies continuing to be released.

The average daily trading volume in key cities increased by 11%.

Since the comprehensive policies to promote the stabilization of the real estate market were introduced at the end of September, the policy effects have become significantly apparent.

Data monitored by the Kr research center shows that as of October 20th, the total transaction volume of new houses in the 28 key cities was 7.33 million square meters in October, a slight decrease of 2% from the same period last year, with a daily trading volume increasing by 11% compared to September.

Among them, the overall transaction volume in first-tier cities remained high, with a 7% increase in daily transactions in the first 20 days of October compared to September, and an 11% increase from the same period last year. The recovery in key second-tier cities is not as strong as in first-tier cities, still down 9% compared to the same period last year in October. Due to the low base effect from last year, combined with real estate companies accelerating the exchange of price for quantity, third and fourth-tier cities performed better than expected, with an overall increase of 21% in the seven key cities compared to the same period last year, with significant increases in Foshan and Dongguan.

The changes in the second-hand market are even more significant. Data monitored by the Kr research center shows that in the first 20 days of October, 0.054 million second-hand houses were sold in 16 key cities, an 11% increase from the first 20 days of September, and a 14% increase from the same period last year.

In first-tier cities, the demand for second-hand houses is significantly better than for new houses; in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, the transaction volume from the beginning of October to the 20th of October increased by 31% compared to the same period in September, and the year-on-year increase reached 60%. Second-hand housing markets in key second-tier and third and fourth-tier cities performed not as well as new houses, with overall transactions still in a negative growth channel, only a few cities saw an increase in transactions.

Ding Zuyu, Executive Director of the E-House Research Institute in Shanghai, believes that since the end of September, bullish policies have continued from the central government to core first and second-tier cities, and recently, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, Ministry of Finance, and other departments have frequently spoken out to stabilize the real estate market, boosting market confidence in the short term and playing a positive role in final transactions, especially in first-tier cities, where new house transactions still have room for growth.

According to Zhang Dawei, looking at the national market, there is still policy space in the future, whether in Beijing or other hot first-tier cities. The real estate market in 2024 is expected to experience a 'mild winter' under the influence of policies, with high volume transactions and stable transaction prices.

Editor/Lambor