24Q3 公司实现颗粒硅产量6.20 万吨，环比-12.43%，主要系产线技改导致产能利用率下降；而24Q3 实现出货量8.09 万吨，环比+32.19%，位于行业第一梯队，我们判断主要系颗粒硅市场认可度提升。24Q3 公司颗粒硅现金成本为33.18 元/kg，环比-5.71%，在产量环比降低的情况下，仍实现现金成本持续下降，彰显公司技改成效显著。考虑到目前产线技改已阶段性完成，产能利用率有望触底回升，我们判断Q4 现金成本有望逐渐降低至30元/kg 以下，市占率有望持续提升。公司已实现颗粒硅有效产能42 万吨，6万吨模块化项目有望24H2 投产。The company announced results for the third quarter: 9M24's net profit to mother - -2.971 billion yuan, of which the photovoltaic materials business lost 1.8 billion yuan, mainly due to a sharp drop in polysilicon and silicon wafer prices; of these, Q3 net profit - -1.492 billion yuan, +1.32% month-on-month, mainly due to the company's promotion of production line optimization, and continuous reduction in cash costs.
The company's third-quarter results fell short of our expectations (-1.23 billion yuan), and we speculate that mainly product prices fell more than expected. Considering the mismatch between supply and demand in the silicon sector, high energy consumption and inefficient production capacity may be limited. We are optimistic that the company's granular silicon cost advantage is leading, capacity utilization is expected to increase, and market share is expected to increase steadily. The target price was raised to HK$2.29 (previous value HK$1.39), maintaining a “buy” rating.
Technological reforms were completed in stages, and cash costs were continuously optimized
24Q3 achieved 0.062 million tons of granular silicon production, -12.43% month-on-month, mainly due to reduced capacity utilization due to technical improvements in production lines; while 24Q3 achieved shipment volume of 0.0809 million tons, +32.19% month-on-month, and is in the first tier of the industry. We judge that the main reason is the increase in granular silicon market recognition. 24Q3's cash cost of granular silicon was 33.18 yuan/kg, -5.71% month-on-month. While production declined month-on-month, cash costs continued to decline, showing that the company's technical reform had achieved remarkable results. Considering that the technical reform of the production line has now been completed in stages, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to bottom up, we judge that Q4 cash costs are expected to gradually drop below 30 yuan/kg, and the market share is expected to continue to increase. The company has achieved an effective production capacity of 0.42 million tons of granular silicon, and the 0.06 million ton modular project is expected to be put into operation in 24H2.
The industrialization of perovskite is leading, and it is expected to achieve mass production of commercial components in 25 years. The conversion efficiency of the company's 1m×2m large perovskite components reached 19.04%, and the efficiency of 369mm×555mm laminated modules exceeded 27.34%, making it in a leading position in the industry. In terms of production capacity, GCL Optoelectronics's first GW grade perovskite module production line is expected to be completed by the end of 24, and mass production of 1.2 m x 2.4 m perovskite laminated commercial components with a conversion efficiency of 27% is expected in '25. On September 26, '24, the company signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Kunshan to jointly promote the construction of a 20GW perovskite module project; on the same day, the company and Wujiang District signed a cooperation agreement to jointly build GCL's perovskite equipment industrial park to promote localization and replacement of the perovskite industry chain.
Profit forecasting and valuation
Considering the mismatch between supply and demand in the silicon sector, prices continued to fall, we lowered our 24-26 price assumption.
24Q3's granular silicon sales increased month-on-month, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to increase after the completion of superimposed technical reforms. We raised the 24-26 sales assumption. The corresponding forecast net profit for 24-26 was -36.62/+17.04/+3.915 billion yuan (previous value -21.41/+19.27/+4.159 billion yuan), and the year-on-year growth rates were -245.89%/+146.54%/+129.71%, corresponding EPS was -0.14/+0.06/+ 0.15 yuan.
Comparable to the company's 25-year Wind, the average PE is expected to be 33.9 times. Considering the company's significant cost advantage in granular silicon, the market share is expected to increase, giving the company 35 times PE in 25 years. RMB: HKD is 1:
1.09, with a corresponding target price of HK$2.29 (previous value of HK$1.39), maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Silicon price fluctuations exceed expectations; downstream demand falls short of expectations, etc.
