公司2024Q1-Q3 实现营收39.46 亿元（同减0.2%），其中美味鲜收入38.08 亿元（同增0.5%），归母净利润5.76 亿元（同比扭亏为盈），扣非归母净利润5.52 亿元（同增19%）。其中2024Q3 公司营收13.28 亿元（同增2%），其中美味鲜营收 12.52 亿元（同增 3%），归母净利润2.26 亿元（同增33%），扣非归母净利润2.13 亿元（同增28%）。盈利端，2024Q3 公司毛利率同增5pct 至38.82%，主要系材料采购单价、生产费用、物流成本下降所致,销售/管理费用率分别同比-2pct/+1pct 至6.26%/7.01%，综合来看，净利率同增5pct 至18.94%。On October 25, 2024, Zhongju Hi-Tech released its report for the third quarter of 2024.
Key points of investment
Marginal revenue improvement, cost optimization boosts gross profit
The company achieved revenue of 3.946 billion yuan (same decrease of 0.2%) in 2024Q1-Q3, of which Delicious Fresh's revenue was 3.808 billion yuan (same increase of 0.5%), net profit due to mother was 0.576 billion yuan (year-on-year loss turned profit into profit), and net profit not attributable to mother was 0.552 billion yuan (same increase of 19%). Among them, the 2024Q3 company's revenue was 1.328 billion yuan (same increase of 2%), of which Delicious Fresh's revenue was 1.252 billion yuan (same increase of 3%), net profit to mother was 0.226 billion yuan (same increase of 33%), and net profit of non-return to mother was 0.213 billion yuan (same increase of 28%). On the profit side, 2024Q3's gross margin also increased by 5 pct to 38.82%, mainly due to a decrease in material purchase price, production costs, and logistics costs. Sales/management expenses ratio was -2pct/+1pct to 6.26%/7.01%, respectively. Taken together, the net margin also increased by 5 pct to 18.94%.
Soy sauce performance improved month-on-month, and the distribution system continued to be reformed
By product, the company's 2024Q3 soy sauce/chicken powder, edible oil/other product revenue was 7.41/0.181/0.13/0.147 billion yuan, respectively, +0.5%/+14%/-9%, respectively. The performance of soy sauce and chicken powder improved month-on-month. The marginal decline in edible oil revenue was mainly due to the removal of inventory in the Q3 channel, and single-digit growth is expected throughout the year. Looking at the subregions, the company's revenue for the 2024Q3 East/South/Midwest/North regions was 2.94/0.522/0.237/0.147 billion yuan, respectively, +9%/+1%/-13%/+3%, respectively. Apart from the Midwest market, revenue in all other regions increased year-on-year in the third quarter. By channel, the company's 2024Q3 distribution/direct sales channel revenue was 1.154/0.046 billion yuan, respectively. Among them, the supermarket and KA channels were under relative pressure. By the end of 2024Q3, the number of company dealers was 2,395, a net increase of 311 from the beginning of the year. Subsequent companies promoted distribution system reforms, managed differently between old and new dealers, and focused on the transmission effect of beer dealers to expand resources, focus on the transmission effects of price increases, and channel thrust is expected to continue to recover.
Profit forecasting
Since the restructuring of the company's board of directors, the marketing structure and personnel adjustments have been completed. The manufacturer relationship needs to be further straightened out after the channel reform. As the reform deepens, the company's channels continue to move towards healthy development after the painful period. As external demand recovers and the pace of reform is optimized, the company's operating pace will steadily improve. EPS is expected to be 0.94/1.12/1.30 yuan in 2024-2026, and the current stock price is 26/21/18 times PE, respectively, maintaining a “buy” investment rating.
Risk warning
Downward macroeconomic risks, increased competition in the industry, the recovery of restaurants falling short of expectations, rising raw material prices, and risks of reforms falling short of expectations.
