成品油需求相对低迷致价差收窄，聚酯产业链仍待改善据百川盈孚，截止10 月23 日，WTI/Brent 原油期货价格收于70.77/74.96美元/桶，10 月初以来中国成品油/HDPE/PP 平均价差692/1464/968 元/吨，较Q3 均值-507/+213/+147 元/吨。聚酯产业链方面，10 月23 日PX/PTA/涤纶长丝POY 报价7600/4930/7150 元/吨，Q4 以来+6%/-4%/+3%，PX-石脑油/PTA-PX/涤纶POY/纯苯-石脑油价差为449/-53/1379/2060 元/吨，Q4 以来+690/-271/+263/-1016 元/吨，聚酯产业链景气仍待回暖。Hengli Petrochemical released its three-quarter report on October 24: Q3 achieved revenue of 65.26 billion yuan, +2.4% YoY/+20.4%, net profit of 1.09 billion yuan to mother, and -59.0%/-42.1% YoY. In the first three quarters, the company achieved revenue of 177.86 billion yuan, yoy +2.7%, net profit of 5.1 billion yuan (not 4.63 billion yuan after deduction), and yoy -10.5% (after deducting yoy -7.0%). The company's Q3 performance declined month-on-month, below our forward-looking expectations (1.5 billion yuan), mainly due to narrowing of price spreads for aromatic hydrocarbon products and suppression of gross profit by high-priced crude oil inventories. Considering the company's cost and the differentiated advantages of the product line over aromatics, we believe that the company can safely get through the bottom of the boom, wait for the industrial chain to recover after improving supply and demand, and maintain a “buy” rating.
The boom in aromatic hydrocarbon products declined, and the overall gross margin in Q3 was under pressure
24Q3's refining and chemical products/PTA/new materials products achieved revenue of 33.3/16.4/10.3 billion yuan, 9%/-17%/+14%, sales volume 5.85/3.35/1.26 million tons, +10%/-14%/+17%, average sales price 5700/4908/8211 yuan/ton, -1%/-3% YoY. The average price of Brent futures in Q3 was -8%/-8% to 78.6 US dollars/barrel, the product price spread narrowed due to high-priced crude oil inventories, and the Q3 comprehensive gross margin was -5.8/-4.8pct to 7.8% month-on-month. The three-quarter report reported that the company's projects under construction were -7.3 billion yuan to 45.1 billion yuan month-on-month. The number of receivables turnover days was 2.08/0.98 days shorter than in the same period in 22/23, respectively, and the efficiency of capital use improved.
The price spread has narrowed due to relatively low demand for refined oil products, and the polyester industry chain still needs to be improved. According to Baichuan Yingfu, as of October 23, the WTI/Brent crude oil futures price closed at 70.77/74.96 US dollars/barrel. Since the beginning of October, the average price difference of refined oil/HDPE/PP in China has been 692/1464/968 yuan/ton, compared to the Q3 average of -507/+213/+147 yuan/ton. In terms of the polyester industry chain, PX/PTA/polyester filament POY quoted 7600/4930/7150 yuan/ton on October 23, +6%/-4%/+3% since Q4, PX-naphtha/PTA-PX/polyester POY/pure benzene-naphtha price difference was 449/-53/1379/2060 yuan/ton, +690/ -271/+263/-1016 yuan/ton since Q4, and the polyester industry chain boom has yet to pick up.
Production capacity for new materials is gradually being launched, and the increase can be expected in the future
According to the company's semi-annual report, the 1.6 million tons/year high-performance resin and new materials project is expected to be fully put into operation in the second half of 2024; the 12-line functional film project at the Suzhou Fenhu base has been put into operation one after another, and the 12-line functional film project and lithium battery diaphragm project at the Nantong base are progressing steadily. It is expected that they will all be completed and put into operation in the first half of 2025, and new materials will be implemented incrementally, and the future can be expected after the industry boom recovers.
Profit forecasting and valuation
Considering that the boom in the aromatic hydrocarbon and polyester industry chain since the second half of '24 was lower than previously expected, we expect the company's 24-26 net profit to be 7/10.1/12.8 billion yuan (previous value 9.5/12.2/15 billion yuan), with a year-on-year growth rate of +0.8%/+45.9%/+26.4%, corresponding EPS of 0.99/1.44/1.82 yuan. Refer to comparable companies' 25-year wind consensus average of 12xPE. Considering the company's integrated refining and chemical advantages, we will give the company 25 years 12.5xPE, target price 18.00 yuan, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: risk of fluctuations in international oil prices; risk of unstable supply of raw materials; risk of demand falling short of expectations.
