应收账款规模延续收缩，前三季度经营性现金流向好24Q3 末公司资产负债率/有息负债率57.4%/31.2%，同比-3.5/+0.3pct，应收账款账面净值8.92 亿，同比-17.2%。24 年前三季度公司经营性净现金流5.15 亿元，同比+8.23%；Q3 为1.4 亿元，同比-54.6%，其中收现比/付现比分别为115.8%/109.7%，同比+6.8/+9.3pct。Mona Lisa announced third-quarter results: Q3 achieved revenue of 1.238 billion yuan (yoy -24.30%, qoq -18.38%) and net profit of 57.9164 million yuan (yoy -65.72%, qoq -20.63%). In 2024, Q1-Q3 achieved revenue of 3.572 billion yuan (yoy -21.41%) and net profit of 0.141 billion yuan (yoy -57.85%) to mother. The company's net profit for 3Q24 fell short of our expectations (0.088 billion yuan), mainly due to slow revenue recovery combined with a year-on-year decline in gross margin. We expect the intensity of the industry price war to be higher than our previous expectations, but considering the recent introduction of a package of incremental policies, real estate completion or benefit policy support, it maintained a “buy” rating.
The sales structure continued to be optimized, and the gross margin of 3Q24 cost-side fluctuations weighed on the company's distribution/engineering strategy revenue of 2.702/0.871 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 24, or -6.79%/-47.13%, accounting for 75.6%/24.4%, respectively. C-side revenue increased 11.9 pct compared to the first three quarters of 23, and the company maintained a strategy of vigorous distribution and contraction engineering. The company's gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 24 was 27.59%, -2.0pct; 24Q3 gross profit margin was 29.01%, -3.54/+2.01pct month-on-month, under month-on-month pressure, or mainly due to cost-side fluctuations and simultaneous price pressure. The operating rate was low due to weak sales. According to Wind, the 24Q3 national natural gas price was +20.6%/+14.1% month-on-month.
The absolute value of expenses declined year-on-year during the 1-9M24 period, but the dilution of revenue affected the net interest rate by 21.21%, +2.40pct year-on-year. The total absolute value of expenses for the period was 0.76 billion yuan, -11.4% year-on-year. Among them, the sales/management/ R&D/ finance ratio was 6.18%/9.56%/3.81%/1.66%, -0.45pct/+2.31pct/+0.21pct, sales/R&D expenses Absolute values have all declined, management expenses have been relatively rigid, and rates have increased significantly as revenue dilution weakens. The company's net interest rate for the first three quarters of 24 was 3.93%, -3.40pct year on year; 3Q24 net profit margin was 4.68%, -5.65/-0.13pct month-on-month.
The scale of accounts receivable continued to shrink. Operating cash flow in the first three quarters improved at the end of 24Q3 to 57.4%/31.2%, -3.5/+0.3 pct year over year, and the net book value of accounts receivable was 0.892 billion, -17.2% year-on-year. The company's net operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 24 was 0.515 billion yuan, +8.23% year over year; Q3 was 0.14 billion yuan, or -54.6% year over year, with revenue ratio/payment ratios of 115.8%/109.7%, respectively, +6.8/+9.3 pct.
Profit forecasting and valuation
Considering the company's slow sales repair, we lowered the company's 24-26 EPS to 0.45/0.64/1.01 yuan (previous value 0.51/0.87/1.26 yuan). Comparatively, the average value of the company's Wind PE in '25 was 18.3x. Considering the fierce price competition in the ceramic tile sector, the company's sales growth rate continued to be under pressure. The company was given 17xPE in '25, corresponding to a target price of 10.94 yuan (previous value of 10.14 yuan).
Risk warning: The cost of raw materials and energy has risen sharply, increasing competition in the industry has led to a decline in gross margin, and the risk of depreciation of accounts receivable.
