基金销售：Q3 降幅边际收窄，受益于市场景气度逐步回升基金销售业务收入主要计入营业收入，24Q1-Q3 营业收入22.43 亿元，同减26.8%，24Q3 单季7.20 亿元，同减22.2%，增速较24Q2 提升5.1pct。Oriental Wealth released its three-quarter report: Q3 achieved total operating income of 2.359 billion yuan (yoy -13.86%, qoq -5.24%) and net profit of 1.986 billion yuan (yoy +0.09%, qoq -5.52%). Q1-Q3 2024 achieved total operating income of 7.304 billion yuan (yoy -13.96%), net profit to mother of 6.042 billion yuan (yoy -2.69%), after deducting non-net profit of 5.697 billion yuan (yoy -3.49%). The transaction amount of all 24Q1-Q3 A shares was 144 trillion yuan, a 10% reduction, of which the 24Q3 transaction amount was 43 trillion yuan, a 15% reduction.
The company's securities business has shown some resilience, and the fund sales business is expected to gradually recover steadily. I am optimistic that the company will invest in AI to continuously improve the user experience and maintain a “buy” rating.
Securities business: The decline in revenue was less than the decline in trading volume; the market share continued to rise in 24Q1-Q3 net interest income of 1.506 billion yuan, down 9.7%; 24Q3 was 0.479 billion yuan in a single quarter, down 13.3%; 24Q1-Q3 processing fees and commission income were 3.555 billion yuan, down 5.3%; 24Q3 was 1.16 billion yuan in a single quarter, down 8.0%. The decline in the company's securities business revenue was less than the decline in trading volume, reflecting a certain degree of resilience. As of the end of 24Q3, the company had raised 43.84 billion yuan of capital, accounting for 3.0% of the two loans in the market, +0.3 pct year over year, and +0.1 pct month-on-month. The company's securities business has developed steadily, its capital strength has increased, and its brokerage business market share has increased steadily over the same period last year.
Fund sales: The decline narrowed marginally in Q3, benefiting from the gradual recovery in market sentiment. The revenue from the fund sales business was mainly included in operating income. 24Q1-Q3 revenue was 2.243 billion yuan, a decrease of 26.8%, and 24Q3 was 0.72 billion yuan in a single quarter, a decrease of 22.2%. The growth rate increased 5.1 pcts compared to 24Q2.
The transaction amount of all 24Q1-Q3 A shares was 144 trillion yuan, down 10%. The issuance scale of newly established equity funds was 99.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.5%. The overall market sentiment had a negative impact on the company's fund sales. Since October 2024, for a total of 14 trading days, the total transaction amount of A shares was 28.1 trillion yuan. Based on the cumulative transaction amount for the previous 14 trading days, the cumulative transaction amount was +152% year-on-year and +261% month-on-month. We are optimistic that the recovery in the A-share market will drive a gradual steady recovery in fund sales revenue.
R&D investment continues to increase, and AI empowerment is expected to continue to improve the user experience 24Q1-Q3 sales/management/ R&D expense ratio 3.0%/23.4%/11.6%, 24Q3 single quarter sales/management/ R&D expenses rate 2.8%/23.6%/12.4%, +0.03pct/+1.5pct, +0.03pct/+1.5pct, R&D investment continues to increase. The company empowers businesses such as data services and fund sales through AI, and user experience may continue to improve.
Profit forecasting and valuation
Considering that the pace of recovery in Q3 market sentiment was slower than previously anticipated and profit forecasts were lowered, we expect the company's EPS for 2024-2026 to be 0.47, 0.51, and 0.56 yuan, respectively (previous values of 0.50, 0.52, and 0.56 yuan). Comparatively, the company's 2025 Wind unanimously anticipated an average PE value of 59.3 times, giving the company 59.3 times PE in 2025, with a target price of 30.45 yuan (previous value of 12.74 yuan), maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the risk that trading volume will continue to shrink; AI product implementation progress falls short of expectations.
