成本+费用端的影响带来利润承压Incident: The company achieved revenue of 1.858 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, -2.23% year on year, net profit of 0.145 billion yuan, or -25.62% year on year; of these, 2024Q3 achieved operating income of 0.84 billion yuan, -9.14% year on year, and net profit to mother 0.038 billion yuan, or -56.83% year on year.
Actively plan to expand overseas production capacity
The company's 24Q3 revenue growth rate was under pressure. In terms of operation, in order to maintain the sustainability of the business and prevent uncertain risks in the market, the company actively increased investment in R&D of new products, new categories, and new tracks, while planning ahead of schedule to expand the production capacity of overseas production bases and improve the supply chain of overseas production bases.
The impact on the cost+cost side puts pressure on profits
The company's gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 17.06%, -1.76pct year on year, net margin was 7.66%, year-on-year -2.77pct; of these, 2024Q3 gross margin was 13.8%, year-on-year -5.52pct, and net margin was 4.33%, and -5.41pct yoy. The company's sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios for the first three quarters of 2024 were 0.63%, 3.91%, 4.13%, and -0.89%, respectively, +0.14, +0.63, +0.66, and +0.7pct; of these, the 24Q3 quarter sales, management, R&D, and finance expenses rates were 0.53%, 2.95%, 3.64%, and 0.35%, respectively, +0.02, +0.33, +0.78pct. The company's profit margin declined year-on-year, mainly due to an increase in the share of production at overseas bases on the cost side, lengthening the supply chain, and rising logistics costs; on the cost side, increased R&D expenses, and increased exchange losses due to exchange rate effects.
Investment advice: The company's cleaning appliance foundry business remains stable. Furthermore, the gradual development of cleaning machines and commercial beauty equipment businesses has made the company's revenue structure more diversified. In the future, if the energy storage business expands energy, the company's revenue side will grow relatively well. According to the company's three-quarter report, we lowered the revenue growth rate and raised the financial expense ratio. We expect the company's net profit to mother for 24-26 to be 0.22/0.26/0.31 billion yuan (previous value 0.3/0.35/0.39 billion yuan), corresponding to 32.6x/28.0x/23.6x, maintaining the “increase in holdings” rating.
Risk warning: risk of high customer concentration; risk of global macroeconomic changes; risk of fluctuations in raw material costs; risk of exchange rate fluctuations; risk of new track expansion.
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
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