维持增持评级 。2024Q3公司实现收入3.86亿元（-9.2%），归母净利润-0.62 亿元，扣非归母净利润-0.69 亿元，业绩略低于预期。考虑招标放缓及费用投入增加，下调2024-2026 年EPS 预测至0.55/1.07/1.44元（原1.05/1.31/1.70 元），考虑估值水平提升，给予2025 年PE40X，上调目标价至42.80 元，维持增持评级。Introduction to this report:
Revenue was under pressure due to the slowdown in domestic tendering, and losses occurred due to increased personnel investment during the trough period. It is expected that as tenders resume, performance is expected to improve quarterly, and the rating of increasing holdings will be maintained.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an increase in holdings rating. In 2024Q3, the company achieved revenue of 0.386 billion yuan (-9.2%), net profit attributable to mother of -0.062 billion yuan, and net profit not to mother of -0.069 billion yuan. The performance was slightly lower than expected. Considering the slowdown in tendering and the increase in cost investment, the 2024-2026 EPS forecast was lowered to 0.55/1.07/1.44 yuan (originally 1.05/1.31/1.70 yuan), considering the increase in valuation level, the 2025 PE40X was given, and the target price was raised to 42.80 yuan to maintain the increase rating.
Revenue is under pressure due to the slowdown in in-hospital tenders, and tendering is expected to resume quarterly. Against the backdrop of slow implementation of industry rectification and equipment upgrades, the company's domestic ultrasound and endoscopy business is under pressure. Domestic business is expected to decline by about 10% in 2024Q1-3. Among them, ultrasound pressure is higher than endoscopy; international business will increase slightly. Judging from the pace of equipment updates, it is expected that some orders will be placed in 2024Q4, will continue to advance in 2025, and revenue is expected to improve quarterly. The company strictly controls channel inventory, and the 2024Q3 channel inventory is expected to drop compared to Q2; 2024Q3 accounts receivable are 0.16 billion yuan, which is also a decrease of 0.07 billion month-on-month compared to 2024H1. The reporting terminal quality is relatively good, and performance is expected to be reflected relatively quickly after in-hospital bidding resumes.
With increased investment in sales and R&D expenses, there were losses in a single quarter, and 2024Q4 is expected to improve.
There were losses in 2024Q3, mainly in the third quarter, when sales volume was smaller, and the company increased investment in sales and R&D personnel. 2024Q3 sales/management/R&D expenses increased 41%/29%/34% year over year, and 4%/35%/14% month over month. Absorbing industry talent during the low period of the industry will strengthen its strength, and it is expected to usher in better performance flexibility after the resumption of bidding. Considering that the fourth quarter is the peak season for the industry, and the volume of revenue is generally large, we expect profit to improve significantly in 2024Q4. The 2024Q3 gross profit margin was 64.37% (-3.7pp), mainly due to a decline in domestic revenue share (domestic gross profit margin 79% in 2023, overseas gross profit margin 57%), and remained stable overall.
Installed capacity is growing steadily, and products are developing to high-end. 2024Q1-3 Under pressure from the industry, the company's installed capacity growth rate is relatively steady, the proportion of tertiary hospitals also remains high, and the clinical acceptance of the product continues to increase. The commercial version of the Ultrasonic80 platform has been released, and it is expected that it will continue to make high-end breakthroughs and seize import market share; on the basis of the HD580, the soft mirror is expected to launch a new generation of products in 2025 to strengthen the competitive strength of the product; after the launch of the 4K100 platform, surgery has strengthened research and development of several small mirror types, and the overall development trend is good.
Risk warning: Competition increases risk, equipment updates fall short of expectations, etc.
