24Q3 营收整体yoy+120%-125%（vs24H1 为62%），其中中国内地营收yoy+55%-60%（vs24H1 为31.5%），港澳台及海外yoy+440%-445%（vs24H1 为259.6%）。24Q3 中国内地各渠道营收增速为：(1)零售店：yoy+30%-35%（vs24H 为24.7%）；(2)机器人：yoy+20%-25%（vs24H1 为16.2%）；(3)抽盒机：yoy+55%-60%（vs24H1 为7%）；(4)电商及其他线上平台：yoy+135%-140%（vs24H1 为54%），其中抖音yoy+115%-120%（vs24H1 为90.7%），天猫yoy+155%-160%（vs 24H1 为28.1%）；(5)批发及其他：yoy+45%-50%（vs24H1 为90.8%）。Key points of investment
The company announced the business situation for the third quarter of 2024, and the overall revenue of 2024Q3 increased 120%-125% year-on-year.
Overseas and online growth rates exceeded expectations in 24Q3
24Q3's overall revenue yoy +120%-125% (vs24h1 was 62%), including mainland China revenue yoy +55%-60% (vs24h1 was 31.5%), Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and overseas yoy +440%-445% (vs24h1 was 259.6%). 24Q3 The revenue growth rate of various channels in mainland China was: (1) retail stores: yoy +30%-35% (Vs24h 24.7%); (2) robots: yoy +20%-25% (vs24h1 is 16.2%); (3) boxers: yoy +55%-60% (vs24h1 7%); (4) e-commerce and other online platforms: yoy +135%-140% (vs24h1 was 54%), of which Douyin yoy +115%-120% (vs24h1 was 90.7%)), days cat yoy +155%-160% (28.1% vs 24H1); (5) wholesale and others: yoy +45%-50% (Vs24h1 90.8%).
Domestic online strategy adjustments have achieved remarkable results
By channel, the growth rate of 24Q3 box extractors and Tmall increased significantly compared to 24H1. The company focuses on improving the efficiency of box drawing machines. On the one hand, it attracts new customers to the pool and enhances consumers' experience through collaboration with stores; on the other hand, it adopts differentiated operation strategies for key categories of box drawers. The company positions Tmall as an entry point for the brand audience, adheres to content buying and distribution strategies, tries to break traffic, find people in key categories, and achieve better growth in membership and traffic.
The logic of “IP X category X globalization” continues to evolve
(1) IP and categories: 1) Labubu: Vinyl plush “Monster Carnival Series”, “LabubuxProNounce Co-branded Series”, and “ZIMOMO Archangel” continues to be popular; “ZIMOMO Archangel” JD has booked over 0.17 million people; “THE MONSTERS Building Blocks Phase II” was recently launched; 2) SkullPanda: The first vinyl plush “Soft and Tough” debuted at Shanghai PTS in October, with a price of 199 yuan as of 10.25 thousand islands. The average transaction price is close to 2,800 yuan, and the leading IP is expected to continue to drive sales in the category; 3) Ono: On October 24, the Little Prince Ono co-branded blind box was released. As of 10.25, Tmall had sold 0.02 million+; 4) New IP: “Star Man” launched the first blind box series, which sold 9,000+ on Tmall as of 10.25, and was very popular in the surrounding area, opening up space for collaboration with illustration IP. (2) Globalization:
As of '24, the number of H1 overseas stores reached 83. It is planned to add 30-40 overseas stores in the second half of the year, focusing on North America and Southeast Asia. On July 19, the 100th overseas store opened in Jakarta, Indonesia, and the pace of store opening accelerated.
Investment advice
We expect the company's net profit to be 2.79/3.62/4.54 billion yuan in 2024-2026, corresponding PE is 34/26/21x, and EPS is 2.07/2.70/3.38 yuan, respectively. We are optimistic that the company's “IP X Category X Globalization” logic will continue to evolve and maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: risk of declining IP popularity, risk of exchange rate risk, risk of growth falling short of expectations, risk of overseas business policy, etc.