国产光刻机及光刻工艺技术持续进展，信息部分公开提振市场信心。此前国产光刻机相关公开信息较少，保密程度高，而2024 年以来，3 月22 日华为公开四重曝光工艺技术改进优化的专利，9 月9 日工信部发布《首台（套）重大技术装备推广应用指导目录（2024年版）》公示稿，9 月10 日上海微电子公开“极紫外辐射发生装置及光刻设备”的专利，国内光刻设备及曝光工艺公开信息增多，有助于提振市场信心，茂莱光学作为零部件供应厂商显著受益。10 月22 日公司发布《关于股价异常波动的公告》，声明不存在应披露而未披露的重大信息、不存在对公司股票交易价格可能产生重大影响的媒体报道及市场传闻。Key points of investment:
Incident: The company released its 2024 three-quarter report, in line with expectations. The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 0.375 billion, up 4.33% year on year; net profit to mother was 24.49 million, down 32.5% year on year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 18.58 million, down 37.0% year on year. Corresponding to quarterly revenue of 0.134 billion in the third quarter of 2024, up 11.3% year on year, net profit to mother was 8.92 million, up 15.8% year on year, after deducting net profit of 7.19 million, up 51.7% year on year.
The semiconductor sector's share of revenue remained high at nearly 50%, benefiting significantly from the domestic substitution trend. The company's semiconductor revenue in the first three quarters of 2024 was 0.182 billion yuan, accounting for 48.6%, corresponding to revenue of 64.36 million yuan in the third quarter, accounting for 48.0% of the current period. The company's semiconductor component products covered the two major downstream tracks of lithography equipment and semiconductor inspection and measurement equipment, all of which had a low localization rate. The domestic substitution process in the two major fields accelerated markedly, driving Maule's high domestic business revenue growth in the semiconductor sector, which supported Mulai's core performance.
Domestic lithography machines and lithography process technology continue to advance, and partial disclosure of information boosts market confidence. Previously, there was little public information about domestic lithography machines, and the level of confidentiality was high. Since 2024, on March 22, Huawei disclosed a patent for improving and optimizing quadruple exposure process technology, on September 9, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the “First (Set) Major Technical Equipment Promotion and Application Guidance Catalogue (2024 Edition)”, and on September 10, Shanghai Microelectronics disclosed the “Extreme UV Radiation Generator and Lithography Equipment” patent. The increase in public information on domestic lithography equipment and exposure processes has helped boost market confidence. On October 22, the company issued the “Notice Concerning Abnormal Fluctuations in Stock Prices”, stating that there is no important information that should be disclosed but not disclosed, and there are no media reports or market rumors that may have a significant impact on the company's stock trading price.
The life sciences sector is picking up, and the driverless car sector is growing rapidly in a single quarter. In the third quarter of 2024, the company's revenue in the life sciences sector was 35.5 million yuan, accounting for 26.4%, a significant increase from 20.0% in the first half of the year. Demand from 1H24 downstream customers slowed due to blocking overseas market promotion progress, and there was a recovery in the third quarter. The company's revenue in the driverless car sector in the third quarter was 13.22 million yuan, accounting for 9.8%, higher than 1H24's total revenue of 11.74 million yuan in this field. The total revenue of the driverless car sector in the first three quarters was 24.96 million yuan, accounting for 6.7% of revenue, making it the company's third largest business area.
Profitability picked up slightly month-on-month. The company's gross profit margin for the third quarter of 2024 was 49.0%, up 2.9 pcts month-on-month, or the share of revenue from the life science business with high gross profit in the third quarter rebounded. The company's net profit margin for the first three quarters was 6.52%, down 3.6 pcts year on year, but it rebounded slightly from the 1H24 net profit margin. The net profit for the fourth quarter is expected to recover further.
Investment analysis opinion: Maintain profit forecasts and maintain “gain” ratings. The company's 2024-2026 revenue is expected to be 0.547, 0.65, and 0.732 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.3%, 18.9%, and 12.5%; net profit to mother of 0.05, 0.058, 0.062 billion, year-on-year growth, 6.2%, 16.5%, 8.0%, and dynamic PE 203, 174, 161 times. Considering that the company is an important component supplier for domestic lithography machines, the company is expected to benefit greatly if domestic lithography machines break through, and maintain the “gain” rating.
Risk warning: Downstream market expansion falls short of expectations. On October 22, the company issued a “Notice Concerning Abnormal Stock Price Fluctuations”, etc.
