调整盈利预期，维持“增持”评级。短期受新国标出台，下游经销商去库，公司业绩略低于预期，考虑公司经营情况，我们下调盈利预期， 预计公司2024-2026 年EPS 为2.38/3.11/3.64 元（ 原2.67/3.32/3.99 元）。参考行业估值水平，考虑公司优势品牌定位及精细化渠道管理能力带来的估值溢价，给予公司2025 年14xPE，上调目标价至43.49 元（原38.37 元），维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
Short-term performance is under pressure. The company is saving energy for 2025, favorable policies resonate, and leading brands are expected to fully benefit.
Key points of investment:
Adjust profit expectations and maintain an “gain” rating. Due to the introduction of the new national standard in the short term, downstream dealers went out of stock, and the company's performance was slightly lower than expected. Considering the company's operating conditions, we lowered our profit expectations. The company's 2024-2026 EPS is expected to be 2.38/3.11/3.64 yuan (originally 2.67/3.32/3.99 yuan). Referring to the valuation level of the industry, considering the valuation premium brought about by the company's superior brand positioning and refined channel management capabilities, the company was given 14xPE in 2025, raising the target price to 43.49 yuan (originally 38.37 yuan), and maintaining the “gain” rating.
Sales improved month-on-month, and the base figure dragged down the growth rate. 2024Q3's sales volume was 3.46 million, -9% YoY, +23% month-on-month. Estimated ASP for bicycles was 1986 yuan, flat month-on-month, +4% YoY. The impact of national standard spot checks in the third quarter weakened. Trade-in was promoted in some regions, dealers' willingness to buy goods picked up, and terminal sales improved. The high base for the same period in 2023 dragged down the year-on-year growth rate.
Bicycle profits have remained stable. 2024Q3's gross margin/net profit margin was 16.8%/8.8%, +0.7 pct/-0.4 pct year on year, -0.9 pct/+0.5 pct month on month; the estimated 2024Q3 bicycle profit was 174 yuan, +5% month-on-month, the same as the previous year. Currently, the company's motor production ratio is 80% +, handlebars etc. are manufactured 20% +. Strong cost control capabilities and three-electric technology guarantee profit quality.
Building up energy in 2025, the performance is worth looking forward to. In the short term, during the traditional low season in the fourth quarter, when the official draft of the new national standard is being introduced, the pace of promotion of new products by manufacturers is slow, and shipments from small and medium-sized brand dealers may slow down after the implementation of the new standards on November 1, while the launch of trade-in in new regions (recently adding Shanghai, Fujian, etc.) hedge against adverse factors. The industry is expected to remain stable in the fourth quarter. Looking ahead to 2025, the new national standard will be officially introduced. Dealer inventory replenishment and trade-in policies will resonate, promote the improvement of industry prosperity, reduce plastic parts and accelerate the intelligent trend of the Beidou system, contributing to the improvement of ASP. On the supply side, the white list guides manufacturers to focus on manufacturing research and development, and pushes share to focus on leading brands. The company's share of new products will decrease in 2024, actively reserve new national standard products, and have outstanding brand mentality, supply chain efficiency, and channel management advantages. 2025 is expected to fully benefit from the standardized competitive trend of the industry.
Risk warning: Prices of raw materials continue to rise, downstream consumer demand falls short of expectations, etc.
