需求端预期回暖改善，内部优化费用增速预期缓和，国内主业方面，专项债发行速度加快，而PBG 各子行业表现整体与资金来源情况关系比较直接，虽然传导到需求端需要一点时间；EBG 以企业降本增效为目的的数字化需求活跃，技术创新对产业发展带来提质增效的价值，也为公司带来业务发展的新机会；SMBG 整体行业库存降低后，将增加业务发展的弹性；境外新兴市场发展潜力良好，非视频类业务增速更快，项目类销售占比提升；创新业务持续获得资源倾斜，发展潜力大，总体看，预期快则四季度，慢则明年一季度，将有机会看到探底回暖。公司内部优化与费用管控工作持续，形成产出与投入更好的平衡。On October 25, 2024, the company released its three-quarter report. The first three quarters achieved revenue of 64.991 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.06%; net profit to mother was 8.108 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.40%. Q3 achieved revenue of 23.782 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.33%; net profit to mother was 3.044 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.37%.
Domestic market demand is weak, overseas markets are generally stable, and revenue side growth is slowing in stages. In the third quarter of the single quarter, PBG's revenue growth rate was positive, EBG increased slightly, and SMBG had significant negative growth due to inventory reduction. The growth rate of innovative business declined compared to the first half of the year, and the growth rate of the main overseas business slowed.
The gross margin and expense ratio are relatively stable, reflecting the company's competitiveness and management capabilities. The gross margins for the first three quarters and the third quarter were 44.76% and 44.25% respectively, with slight year-on-year decreases of 0.09 pct and 0.07 pct, respectively. They can basically remain stable in a weak demand environment, showing the company's good competitive advantage and product innovation ability. The R&D, sales, management, and finance expense ratios for the first three quarters were 13.44%, 13.37%, 3.48%, and -0.20%, respectively, down 0.10 pct, up 0.80 pct, 0.14 pct, and 0.51 pct. Expense growth slowed in the third quarter, cost control was effective, and the number of personnel remained stable.
Demand side expectations are picking up, and internal optimization cost growth is expected to ease. In terms of the main domestic business, the speed of issuance of special bonds is accelerating, while the overall performance of PBG's various sub-industries is relatively directly related, although it takes some time for transmission to the demand side; EBG's digital demand for the purpose of reducing costs and increasing efficiency for enterprises is active, and technological innovation brings value to industrial development and new opportunities for business development; after SMBG's overall industry inventory is reduced, it will increase the elasticity of business development; the overseas market has good potential for development, and the growth rate of emerging non-video businesses is faster The share of project-based sales has increased; innovative businesses continue to receive resource incentives, and there is great potential for development. Overall, the forecast is for the fourth quarter as soon as possible, and the first quarter of next year. There will be an opportunity to see the bottom up. The company's internal optimization and cost control work continues to form a better balance between output and investment.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
Based on the three-quarter report and expectations for future domestic market demand recovery, we adjusted the company's revenue forecast for 2024-2026 to 954.911.067.511.20.92 billion yuan, up 6.9% 111.8% 113.3% year on year; the net profit to the mother was 141.2117.3212068 billion yuan, up 0.07% year on year 122.68% 119.41%, corresponding to 20X17X14X PE, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Risk of domestic macroeconomic recovery falling short of expectations; risk of a tightening geopolitical environment: risk of exchange rate fluctuations.
