分产品看，奶粉类营收14.79 亿元（+7.8%），食品/用品/棉纺/玩具及出行类则分别实现营收2.24/3.74/1.45/0.54 亿元，同比分别-5.1%/-2.5%/-11.6%/-14.8%。盈利能力方面，2024Q1-Q3 毛利率为26.07%（-1.33pct），其中奶粉/食品/用品/棉纺/玩具及出行毛利率分别为15.37%（-1.34pct）/32.42%（+2.90pct）/29.28%（+1.11pct）/39.56%（-1.54pct）/25.28%（-3.33pct），预计终端价格战导致盈利能力下滑。费用方面，2024Q1-Q3 销售/管理/财务费用率分别为20.23%/3.18%/0.91%，同比分别-0.96pct/-0.20pct/-0.14pct，经营效率稳步提升驱动期间费用率略降。Incident: Maternal and Child Leading 2024Q3 Overall Operation Steady
The company released three quarterly reports: 2024Q1-Q3 achieved revenue of 2.468 billion yuan (YoY +1.9%, same below), net profit of 47.89 million yuan (+2.0%); single 2024Q3 achieved revenue of 0.774 billion yuan (+2.6%), and net profit to mother of 5.46 million yuan (+0.8%). The company is a leader in maternal and child retail. It continues to promote online and offline integration, gain insight into consumer trends, launch its own brand, and build long-term competitiveness in all aspects. We keep our profit forecast unchanged. We expect the company's net profit to be 0.116/0.13/0.143 billion yuan in 2024-2026, the corresponding EPS is 0.84/0.94/1.03 yuan, and the PE corresponding to the current stock price is 20.4/18.3/16.6 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
E-commerce channels are good, milk powder is relatively stable, and the cost rate decreased slightly during the 2024Q1-Q3 period. By business format, the company's stores, e-commerce, maternal and child services, and supplier services achieved revenue of 17.86/0.486/0.016/0.159 billion yuan respectively, +0.6%/+12.3%/-7.8%/-5.4% year-on-year, respectively. The e-commerce business was better.
By product, the milk powder category generated revenue of 1.479 billion yuan (+7.8%), while the food/products/cotton/toys and travel categories achieved revenue of 2.24/0.374/0.145/0.054 billion yuan, respectively, -5.1%/-2.5%/-11.6%/-14.8% year-on-year. In terms of profitability, 2024Q1-Q3 has a gross margin of 26.07% (-1.33pct), of which the gross margin for milk/food/products/cotton/toys and travel is 15.37% (-1.34pct)/32.42% (+2.90pct)/29.28% (+1.11pct)/39.56% (-1.54pct)/25.28% (-3.33pct). The terminal price war is expected to lead to a decline in profitability. In terms of expenses, the 2024Q1-Q3 sales/management/finance expense rates were 20.23%/3.18%/0.91%, respectively, and -0.96pct/-0.20pct/-0.14pct, respectively. The cost rate decreased slightly during the period of steady improvement in operating efficiency.
Mother and child leaders continue to promote online and offline integration, and the profitability of their own brands is expected to improve (1) Offline: 2024Q1-Q3 opened 39 new stores and closed 45 stores at the end of the period, totaling 463 stores at the end of the period (the same as at the end of the second quarter), and has 26 stores that have signed contracts to open. (2) Online: On the one hand, develop third-party e-commerce platform business, and on the other hand, continuously optimize the O2O system to improve service efficiency, and firmly explore omni-channel integration. (3) Brand: Insight into maternal and child consumer market trends and launch exclusive brands such as Hollance and Duoyue. In the first half of the year, private brands accounted for about 13% of the revenue of private channels, which is expected to drive an increase in profitability in the future.
Risk warning: Competition in the industry intensifies, the fertility rate continues to decline, and the progress of store expansion falls short of expectations, etc.
