华贸三季度业绩环比改善优于海外货代，品牌出海+直客战略有望使业绩重新企稳。国际头部货代公司DSV、德迅的净利润在2024Q3 环比增长8%、14%，低于公司24%的净利润增幅。品牌出海带来的话语权提升和公司持续落实的直客战略是公司业绩涨幅高于海外标的核心原因。Key points of investment:
Incident: Huamao Logistics released its 2024 three-quarter report. Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 14.417 billion yuan, +38.64% year over year, net profit to mother 0.472 billion yuan, -16.31% year over year, and net profit not returned to mother 0.468 billion yuan, -11.72% year over year. Among them, Q3 2024 revenue was 5.817 billion yuan, +51.54% YoY, +23.32%, net profit to mother 0.169 billion yuan, -20.55% YoY, +24.03% month-on-month, and net profit not after deducting 0.169 billion yuan to mother, -8.85% YoY and +26.34% month-on-month, which is in line with expectations.
Air and sea freight rates rose month-on-month, and the company's operating resilience was evident against the backdrop of increased cost pressure. Air transport: Affected by the spillover effects of the increase in cross-border e-commerce volumes and the spillover effects of rising sea freight rates, air freight prices continued to be strong in the third quarter. The average value of the Baltic Sea air transport price index for the third quarter was 2,137 points, up 1% month-on-month and 12% year-on-year. Shipping: Freight rates gradually declined after reaching a high point at the end of July. CCFI averaged 1991 points in the third quarter, up 38% month-on-month and 127% year-on-year. Against the backdrop of cost-side pressure brought about by rising freight rates, the company's profitability showed resilience. In the future, as freight rates stabilized, the increase in the company's direct customer ratio would gradually show the effect of increasing customer unit prices, and profitability is expected to continue to improve.
The month-on-month improvement in Huamao's performance in the third quarter was superior to that of overseas freight forwarders, and the brand's overseas going+direct customer strategy is expected to stabilize the performance again. The net profit of leading international freight forwarding companies DSV and Kuehne+Kuehne+Nagel increased 8% and 14% month-on-month in 2024Q3, lower than the company's net profit increase of 24%. The increased voice brought about by the brand going overseas and the company's continuous implementation of the direct customer strategy are the core reasons why the increase in the company's performance is higher than that of overseas standards.
After air and sea freight rates enter a stable and declining stage, the freight forwarding market clears up at an accelerated pace, and the profitability of leading freight forwarders with stable cargo volume and full-chain service capabilities is expected to improve dramatically. In the context of batch delivery of large container ships, loading rates declined, freight forwarder discount rates with direct passenger resources increased, and single-box profits expanded. The stock prices of leading freight forwarders are expected to repeat the pace of falling freight rates and rising stock prices from 2010 to 2016.
The company previously promised to maintain a high cash dividend ratio and establish a safety margin with a higher dividend ratio. Previously, the company proposed to distribute dividends to shareholders for three consecutive years (2023-2025) no less than 60% of the current year's distributable profit: (1) when there are no major capital expenditure arrangements for the year, cash dividends should account for at least 80% of the current profit distribution; (2) where there are major capital expenditure arrangements in the current year, when profit distribution is carried out, cash dividends should account for at least 60% of the current profit distribution. The company distributed a dividend of RMB 1.16 for every 10 shares in the middle of the year, accounting for 50% of 24H1's net profit to mother. If the annual dividend rate reaches 60%, combined with profit forecasts, the 2024 dividend rate will reach approximately 5.2%.
Maintaining the “Buy” rating, the 2024 profit forecast was lowered. In view of the phased damage to the company's gross profit due to “guaranteed price insurance” for some direct customers, the profit forecast for 2024 was lowered, and the profit forecast for 2025-2026 was maintained. The estimated 24-26 profit forecast is 0.67 billion, 0.81 billion, 0.9 billion (original forecast 0.72, 0.81, 0.9 billion), corresponding to PE 12, 10, 9 times. The company's higher dividend ratio provides a margin of safety and maintains a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Chinese brands fall short of expectations when going overseas; implementation of direct customer strategies falls short of expectations, and overseas declines sharply.
