公司原料药CDMO 管线日益丰富，2024H1 新增项目数量同比增长14%；截至2024 年6 月底，项目总数达1103 个，其中已上市、III 期临床、I 期/II 期临床项目数量分别为34/81/988 个，形成了可持续的漏斗型项目结构。同时，公司积极拓展制剂CDMO 业务，2024H1 公司制剂团队为60 余家客户的百余个制剂项目提供服务，引入新客户近20 家，服务项目数量同比增长约32%，营收增长超50%，制剂CDMO 业务快速发展。Performance is under phased pressure, and rapid development in emerging business areas is expected to contribute to new volume
With 2024Q1-3, the company achieved operating income of 3.965 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.36%; net profit to mother was 0.631 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34.74%; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 0.618 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of -35.04%. Looking at Q3 alone, the company achieved operating income of 1.201 billion yuan, down 9.15% year on year and 6.79% month on month; net profit to mother 0.156 billion yuan, down 54.80% year on year, down 34.56% month on month; net profit without return to mother 0.15 billion yuan, down 55.65% year on year and 35.75% month on month. Considering the intensification of competition in the API sector and the decline in gross margin and net margin both month-on-month, we lowered the company's profit forecast for 2024-2026. The estimated net profit for 2024-2026 is 0.854/0.972/1.181 billion yuan (originally estimated 1.036/1.185/1.414 billion yuan), EPS is 0.95/1.08/1.31 yuan, and the PE corresponding to the current stock price is 16.7/14.7/12.1 times, given the overall stability and strength of the company's CDMO business The rapid development of the peptide business is expected to contribute to increased performance and maintain a “buy” rating.
The number of new API CDMO projects is growing steadily, and the pharmaceutical CDMO business is developing rapidly
The company's CDMO pipeline of APIs is becoming more and more abundant, and the number of new 2024H1 projects increased 14% year over year; by the end of June 2024, the total number of projects reached 1103, of which the number of listed, phase III clinical, and phase I/II clinical projects was 34/81/988 respectively, forming a sustainable funnel project structure. At the same time, the company is actively expanding the formulation CDMO business. 2024H1's formulation team provided services for more than 100 formulation projects for more than 60 customers and introduced nearly 20 new customers. The number of service projects increased by about 32% year-on-year, revenue increased by more than 50%, and the formulation CDMO business developed rapidly.
The TIDES Division was officially established to accelerate the construction of emerging business areas
In the first half of 2024, the company officially established the TIDES division, and the peptide-conjugated drug technology platform was rapidly expanded; the company has now completed the layout planning of the peptide platform and production capacity, and GMP production capacity will increase rapidly in the next few years. The company has completed the construction of a small nucleic acid drug research and development platform in the US and China, and is speeding up the construction of a small nucleic acid GMP pilot production platform and GMP commercial workshop. At the same time, the company continues to advance the integration process of API formulations. By the end of June 2024, the company's formulation pipeline had 22 projects. Of these, 4 projects had been approved, and 6 projects had submitted listing applications and were in various stages of review and approval.
Risk warning: declining market demand for drug production outsourcing services, loss of core members, etc.
