投资建议：维 持“增持”评级。维持 2024-2026 年公司EPS预测为0.79、0.97、1.16 元，维持目标价为28.2 元。Introduction to this report:
The company's 24Q3 revenue growth rate maintained its comparative advantage. The annual series of 300 yuan or more performed well, the profit growth rate was fast on a low base, and the sales expense ratio was optimized.
Key points of investment:
Investment advice: Maintain an “Overweight” rating. Maintain the 2024-2026 EPS forecast of 0.79, 0.97, and 1.16 yuan, and maintain the target price of 28.2 yuan.
Revenue was in line with expectations, and profit slightly exceeded expectations. 2024Q1-3's revenue was 2.328 billion yuan, +15.31% YoY, net profit to mother 0.333 billion yuan, YoY +22.17%, net profit 0.337 billion yuan, YoY +23.05%, end-of-period contract liabilities 0.476 billion yuan, +10.29% YoY; single 2024Q3 revenue 0.574 billion yuan, +15.77% YoY, net profit to mother 0.038 billion yuan, YoY +108.84 billion %, net profit of 0.035 billion yuan, YoY +71.58%, sales revenue 0.61 billion yuan, +12.73% YoY. The company continues to actively carry out user engineering and seize share, and the performance growth rate still shows a comparative advantage.
The growth rate of products over 300 yuan was impressive, and sales rates were optimized. Looking at 24Q3 by product grade, the company's revenue for products over 300 yuan was 0.16 billion yuan, +42.06% year over year, 100-300 yuan +14.92% year over year, and -24.33% year over 100 yuan. The 2024Q3 series showed high efficiency in continuous customer operation and cultivation, and the development of superimposed order meetings. The price level of 100-300 yuan was promoted in line with the soft H3/H6 price increase during the peak season. Orders and deliveries under 100 yuan were mainly affected by promotional activities and off-peak seasons. The gross margin of 2024Q3 was -1.5pct to 61.1% year over year, and the sales rate was -3.2pct year over year. It is expected that sales discounts will increase mainly due to tasting and free drinks during the marketing and promotion process, while advertising costs have been optimized. The gross sales gap may increase year by year in the future. The management/R&D/finance rates are 1.8/+0.5/+0.4 pct, respectively. Most of the company's foreign donation expenses in 2024 was raised to 2024Q2. As a result, Q3 non-operating expenses decreased by 12.05 million yuan year on year, net profit margin was +3.0 pct to 6.6% year on year, and non-net interest rate was +2.0pct to 6.2% year on year.
The province is stable, and recovery is evident outside the province. By region, 24Q3 companies' revenue in the province was +4.4% year-on-year, and revenue outside the province was +37.9% year-on-year. The company's competitive potential within the province continues, channel inventory control is strict, and the 200 yuan card price band is firmly established. The growth rate is affected by the short-term pace, and the general trend remains unchanged. Outside the province, the company is actively adjusting for markets such as Shaanxi and Ningxia, focusing on strengthening product focus and consumer cultivation. Actions are becoming more solid and results are gradually showing. Breakthroughs in model market adjustments in other regions can be expected.
Risk warning: macroeconomic fluctuations, increased market competition, and increased costs and expenses.
