同期，自产煤单吨成本186.3 元/吨，同比-2.5%，其中只有人工成本同比+0.8%，其余成本项目都呈现负增长，比如原材料、燃料及动力费用因部分露天矿剥离量减少导致原材料等成本下降，修理费因检修计划影响同样有所下滑。Net profit to mother increased month-on-month
2024Q3's revenue was 85.821 billion yuan, +3.4% year over year, net profit to mother was 16.57 billion yuan, +10.5% year over year, +21.66% month on month, after deducting non-return net profit of 16.553 billion yuan, +11.5% year on year. Over the same period, taxes and surcharges were +1.47% month-on-month, sales expenses +9.17% month-on-month, and administrative expenses -2.96% month-on-month.
Production and sales in the coal sector were stable, the cost of tons of coal declined month-on-month, gross profit of tons of coal expanded month-on-month. The revenue for the first three quarters of the coal sector was 201.319 billion yuan, +0.6% year over year, and operating costs were 142.391 billion yuan, +2.3% year over year, mainly due to the increase in outsourced coal sales. During this period, the company produced 0.2444 billion tons of commercial coal, +1% year-on-year, and sold 0.3453 billion tons of coal, +3.8% year-on-year.
In the same period, the cost of self-produced coal per ton was 186.3 yuan/ton, -2.5%. Of these, only labor costs were +0.8%. The rest of the cost items showed negative growth. For example, raw materials, fuel, and power costs declined due to a decrease in the amount of peeling in some open pit mines, and repair costs also declined due to the impact of maintenance plans.
If self-produced coal and trade coal are calculated as a whole, the cost of 2024Q3 per ton in a single quarter was 398.92 yuan/ton, -4.48% month-on-month, and the profit per ton of coal was 188.48 yuan/ton, +23.09% month-on-month, boosting net profit growth in Q3.
Affected by seasonality, the electricity sector recovered sharply from month to month
The electricity sector's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 70.367 billion yuan, +3.4% year-on-year, and operating costs were 59.184 billion yuan, +5.9% year-on-year. In the same period, total power generation capacity was 168.14 billion kilowatt-hours, +7.6% year over year, total electricity sales volume was 158.27 billion kilowatt-hours, +7.8% year over year. The average electricity sales cost was 0.356 yuan/kWh, -0.7% year over year.
Looking at a single quarter, the electricity price was 0.43 yuan/kilowatt-hour, -3.22% month-on-month, the cost of electricity was 0.362 yuan/kilowatt-hour, -4.27% month-on-month, gross profit 0.068 yuan/kilowatt-hour, +2.83% month-on-month, and the PV profit was 0.053 yuan/kilowatt-hour, +16.44% month-on-month. Also, due to seasonal effects, feed-in power increased sharply in Q3, reaching 60.48 billion kilowatt-hours, or +32.54% month-on-month.
Profit forecast and valuation: Maintain the 2024-2026 net profit forecast of 63.1/64.1/64.3 billion yuan, corresponding EPS of 3.17/3.23/3.24 yuan, respectively, to maintain the “buy” rating
Risk warning: The release of coal supply exceeded expectations; macroscopic and electricity demand fell short of expectations; hydropower generation exceeded expectations; coal imports exceeded expectations; and coal mine safety supervision fell short of expectations.
