归属于上市公司股东的净利润为6871.54 万元，同比下降81.15%，环比下降41.84%。其中三季度确认投资净收益5.31 亿元，同比下降17.18%，环比下降5.83%。Incident: On October 25, 2024, Shanxi Coking released its 2024 three-quarter report. Net profit attributable to owners of the parent company for the first three quarters was 0.253 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 80.27%; operating income was 5.452 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.34%.
Net investment income declined year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024. The company's net profit to mother fell 80.27% year on year in the first three quarters of 2024, mainly due to 1) the decline in revenue from the main coking business; 2) the net profit of the participating company Zhongmei Huajin decreased, and the company's confirmed investment income declined year on year. In the first three quarters, the company confirmed a net investment income of 1.877 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.63%.
24Q3 performance declined month-on-month. 24Q3 revenue was 1.508 billion yuan, down 26.84% year over year.
Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 68.7154 million yuan, down 81.15% year on year and 41.84% month on month. Among them, the net income from confirmed investment for the third quarter was 0.531 billion yuan, down 17.18% year on year and 5.83% month on month.
Losses in the main coke industry narrowed month-on-month in 24Q3. 24Q3 achieved coke production of 0.5951 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.05%, a year-on-month decrease of 21.46%, and achieved coke sales of 0.5888 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.66% and a decrease of 24.16% month-on-month. The average price of coke in 24Q3 was 1731.51 yuan/ton, down 10.39% year on year and 5.56% month on month. In terms of cost, the unit procurement cost of coking coal was 1424.91 yuan/ton, down 8.9% month-on-month and 3.24% year-on-year. The gross profit of coking in 24Q3 (coke sales revenue - coking coal purchase amount) was -0.171 billion yuan, an improvement from -0.222 billion yuan in 24Q2. However, it is difficult for coking revenue to cover costs, and the performance of the main coke business continues to be under pressure.
In 24Q3, the prices of the company's main chemical products had mixed ups and downs. Among them, the price of asphalt was 3641.8 yuan/ton, down 15.91% year on year, down 16.84% month on month; the price of industrial naphthalene was 5076.39 yuan/ton, down 5.21% year on year, up 1.52% month on month; the price of methanol was 1924.37 yuan/ton, flat year on year, down 5.49% month on month; price of carbon black was 6169.73 yuan/ton, down 4.77% year on month, down 5.27% month on month; pure benzene price was 7613.31 yuan/ton, up 14.81% year on year, down 0.62% month on month
Investment advice: Considering the weakness of the coking industry and the pressure on the company's main business, we expect the company's net profit to be 0.328/0.417/0.659 billion yuan in 2024-2026, corresponding EPS of 0.13/0.16/0.26 yuan, respectively, and the PE corresponding to October 25, 2024 will be 33/26/16 times, respectively. Maintain a “Cautious Recommendation” rating.
Risk warning: The macroeconomic growth rate fell short of expectations; China Coal's Huajin investment income fell short of expectations; downstream demand was weak; and coke prices fell sharply.
