（1）Q3 煤炭产销量环比提升：2024 年前三季度公司原煤产量2450 万吨，同比-18.7%，其中2024Q3 原煤产量912 万吨，环比+16%。2024 年前三季度公司商品煤销量3311 万吨，同比-16%，其中自产煤销量1882 万吨，同比-30.2%，贸易煤销量1429 万吨，同比+14.7%；单季度来看，2024Q3 公司商品煤销量1228 万吨，环比+6.4%，其中自产煤销量690 万吨，环比+6.9%，贸易煤销量538 万吨，环比+5.8%。（2）Q3 自产煤售价环比下降：2024 年前三季度公司吨煤售价为650元/吨，同比-9.9%，其中自产煤吨煤价格为677 元/吨，同比-4.1%，贸易煤吨煤价格为615 元/吨，同比-18.7%；单季度来看，2024Q3 公司吨煤售价为633 元/吨，环比-3.3%，其中自产煤吨煤价格为660 元/吨，环比-6.5%，贸易煤吨煤价格为598 元/吨，环比+1.4%。（3）Q3 自产煤毛利略有下滑：虽然公司煤炭售价环比下降，但同时公司吨煤成本亦有所下滑，最终致Q3 自产煤吨煤毛利略有下移，2024 年前三季度公司吨煤毛利为226 元/吨，同比-24.8%，其中自产煤吨煤毛利为384 元/吨，同比-9.5%，贸易煤吨煤毛利为18.9 元/吨，同比-46.2%；单季度来看，2024Q3 公司吨煤毛利为229 元/吨，环比-0.1%，其中自产煤吨煤毛利为392 元/吨，环比-2%，贸易煤吨煤毛利为19.7 元/吨，环比+61.7%。Q3 Increased volume led to a month-on-month improvement in performance. High dividends highlight allocation value and maintain a “buy” rating
The company released its three-quarter report for 2024. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 21.96 billion yuan, or -24%; realized net profit to mother of 2.08 billion yuan, or -47.9% year-on-year; realized net profit of 2.19 billion yuan after deduction, or -46.1% year-on-year. Looking at Q3 alone, the company achieved operating income of 7.91 billion yuan, +2.7% month-on-month; realized net profit of 0.79 billion yuan, +11.8% month-on-month, and realized net profit of 0.81 billion yuan after deduction, or +3.8% month-on-month. Since the third quarter, the company's coal production has been released steadily. We maintain the company's profit forecast for 2024-2026. We expect the company to achieve net profit of 3.08/3.38/3.68 billion yuan in 2024-2026, -27.8%/+9.8%/+8.8%; EPS is 1.55/1.70/1.85 yuan, respectively; corresponding to the current stock price PE is 8.5/7.7/7.1 times. Considering that the company's production capacity release is progressing smoothly, compounded by the 2024-2026 high dividend promise, the company's long-term investment value is prominent. Maintain a “buy” rating.
Q3 Coal production and sales increased month-on-month, and the gross profit of tons of coal was relatively stable due to a sharp drop in the price of tons of coal and the cost of tons of coal
(1) Q3 coal production and sales increased month-on-month: The company's raw coal production in the first three quarters of 2024 was 24.5 million tons, -18.7% year-on-year, of which 2024Q3 raw coal production was 9.12 million tons, +16% month-on-month. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company sold 33.11 million tons of commercial coal, -16%, of which self-produced coal sales were 18.82 million tons, -30.2% year-on-year, and 14.29 million tons of trade coal, +14.7% year-on-year; in a single quarter, 2024Q3 sold 12.28 million tons of commercial coal, +6.4% month-on-month, of which self-produced coal sales were 6.9 million tons, +6.9% month-on-month, and 5.38 million tons of trade coal, Compared to +5.8%. (2) In Q3, the price of self-produced coal fell month-on-month: in the first three quarters of 2024, the price of a ton of coal produced by the company was 650 yuan/ton, -9.9%, of which the price of a ton of self-produced coal was 677 yuan/ton, -4.1%, and the price of a ton of traded coal was 615 yuan/ton, -18.7%; in a single quarter, the price of a ton of self-produced coal was 633 yuan/ton, -3.3% month-on-month, of which the price of a ton of self-produced coal was 660 yuan/ton, -6.5% month-on-month, and 598 yuan/ton. +1.4%. 2024Q3 (3) The gross profit of self-produced coal declined slightly in Q3: although the company's coal sales price declined month-on-month, the company's gross profit for tons of coal also declined slightly. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company's gross profit per ton of coal was 226 yuan/ton, -24.8%. Among them, the gross profit of self-produced coal tons was 384 yuan/ton, -9.5% year-on-year; in a single quarter, the gross profit of the company's coal tons of traded coal was 18.9 yuan/ton, 46.2% compared with the same period. 9 yuan/ton, -0.1% month-on-month, including tons of self-produced coal 2024Q3 The gross profit from coal was 392 yuan/ton, -2% month-on-month, and the gross profit from trading coal tons was 19.7 yuan/ton, +61.7% month-on-month.
Coal production capacity has been released in an orderly manner, and the long-term investment value of high dividends has been highlighted
(1) Accelerated processing of production capacity increase procedures: Changchun Coal completed the 6 million tons/year production factor announcement, Ling Zhida Coal completed the 2.4 million tons/year production factor announcement, Hanjiawa Coal completed the 150 tons/year production factor announcement, Hequ Open Pit Coal Industry is steadily advancing the 16 million tons/year production capacity nuclear increase, and the company's coal production capacity is expected to be further released in the future. (2) The long-term investment value of high dividends is highlighted: According to the “2024-2026 Shareholder Return Plan” issued by the company, if the distributable profit achieved by the company in that year is positive, the audit report standard is unqualified, the major investment plan or cash expenditure reaches or exceeds 30% of the company's most recent audited total assets, and exceeds 50 million yuan, the company plans to distribute profits in cash for each year 2024 to 2026, with profit forecasts for 2024 and 2024 Calculated at the closing price on October 25, the current dividend rate of the company reached 6.9%, highlighting the company's long-term investment value.
Risk warning: Economic growth is lower than expected; risk of falling coal prices; coal production and sales fall short of expectations.
