公司经纪业务市场份额持续提升，扩表延续投资端贡献业绩增量。2024年前三季度市场股票成交额同比-11.1%，公司手续费及佣金净收入同比-5.3%，收入下滑幅度好于市场整体成交额预计主要系公司经纪业务市占率有所提升；东方财富线上交易挂靠在西藏拉萨营业部，截至9 月末西藏地区股票交易市占率提升至3.93%，同比+0.02pct、环比6 月末+0.07pct。公司前三季度投资收益+公允价值变动损益同比+49.3%至24.06 亿元，主要系金融资产头寸同比+19.7%至949 亿元，且投资收益率同比有所改善。Incident: In the first three quarters of 2024, Dongfang Wealth achieved total operating income and net profit of 7.304 and 6.042 billion yuan, which was -14.0% and -2.7% year-on-year, respectively, and ROE -1.02pct to 8.14% yoy.
Affected by the continued downturn in the fund sales market, the company's contribution to fund sales revenue fell to 30%. On the revenue side, the company's revenue in the first three quarters (mainly fund sales), net income from interest, fees and commissions were 2.243, 1.506, and 3.555 billion yuan, respectively, -26.8%, -9.7%, and -5.3% year-on-year, accounting for 30.7%, 20.6%, and 48.7% of total revenue, respectively. The share of fund consignment sales revenue declined. On the cost side, operating costs, sales expenses, management expenses, and R&D expenses were 3.65, 0.216, 1.706, and 0.848 billion yuan, respectively. The year-on-year difference was -10.3%, -38.5%, -4.1%, and +7.3%. Sales expenses declined significantly, but R&D expenses continued to grow.
It is expected that in the first three quarters, the customer fund product structure will shift to low-rate cargo base, fixed income funds and ETFs, causing the company's fund sales revenue to decline. Since 2022, the activity of equity funds has continued to decline. The share of all newly established funds, equity and hybrid funds in the first three quarters of 2024 was +10.7% and -31.5%, respectively; as of the end of September, the net stock value of equity and hybrid funds in the entire market was 8.02 trillion yuan, +13.5% compared with the end of September last year, of which stock type +51.1% year over year, and hybrid fund ratio was -11.5%. We expect the scale of low-rate cargo bases, fixed income funds and ETFs in the company's consignment structure to rise, and active equity funds to decline, leading to pressure on redemption fees and end commission income.
The market share of the company's brokerage business continues to rise, and the expansion of the table continues to contribute to the increase in performance on the investment side. Market stock turnover in the first three quarters of 2024 was -11.1% year over year, and the company's net revenue from handling fees and commissions was -5.3% year over year. The decline in revenue was better than the overall market turnover, which is expected to increase the market share of the company's brokerage business; Oriental Wealth Online Trading is linked to the Tibet Lhasa sales department, and by the end of September, the stock market share in Tibet had increased to 3.93%, +0.07pct year over month. The company's investment income plus fair value change profit and loss for the first three quarters was +49.3% to 2.406 billion yuan, mainly due to financial asset positions +19.7% to 94.9 billion yuan year-on-year, and the return on investment improved year-on-year.
Investment advice: In the context of the overall recovery of the A-share market, the company is profoundly benefiting from the double elasticity brought about by market trading activity and increased market share, and adjusted the company's 2024-2026 net profit of 8.996, 12.649, and 15.256 billion yuan, respectively, +9.8%, +40.6%, and +20.6% year-on-year respectively. By the close of October 25, the corresponding PE was 39.8, 28.3, and 23.5 times, respectively, maintaining the company's “gain” rating.
Risk warning: The capital market fluctuates greatly; the company's business share declines; industry regulations are tightening beyond expectations
