库存损失及PTA 产品或拖累业绩，Q3 毛利率环比下降。进入三季度，全球原油价格震荡走弱，24Q3 布油均价78.7 美元/桶，同比/环比分别-8%/-7%，其中单9 月价格同比下跌约21%至72.9 美元，或造成一定库存损失。而产品价格端受下游需求修复较慢影响，主要产品价差有所收窄，其中PX/PTA/涤纶长丝价差环比分别-24%/-1%/+41%。公司24Q3 炼化产品/PTA/新材料实现销量分别为585/335/126 万吨，同比分别+10%/-14%/+17%，环比分别+63%/-9%/-12%，炼化产品环比大幅增长主要系炼化装置于Q2 检修，Q3 逐步恢复产量，PTA及新材料产品的环比下滑或主要系下游产品需求较差；实现产品均价分别为5700/4908/8211 元/吨，同比分别-1%/-4%/-3%，环比分别+4%/-7%/+4%，PTA产品量价齐跌，或拖累三季度业绩。24Q3 公司实现销售毛利率7.78%，同比/环比分别-5.8/-4.8pct；实现销售净利率1.67%，同比/环比分别-2.5/-1.8pct。三季度期间费用率约3.4%，同比/环比分别-0.7%/-1.7%，主要系管理及财务费用持续下降。Matters:
The company released its 2024 three-quarter report. 24Q3 achieved revenue of 65.261 billion yuan, +2.44% YoY/+20.44%; realized net profit to mother of 1.087 billion yuan, or -59.01%/-42.14% YoY; realized net profit of 1.085 billion yuan after deduction of non-mother net profit of 1.085 billion yuan, or -59.86%/-37.05% YoY.
Commentary:
Loss of inventory and PTA products may have dragged down performance, and gross margin declined sequentially in Q3. Entering the third quarter, global crude oil prices fluctuated and weakened. The average price of crude oil in 24Q3 was 78.7 US dollars/barrel, -8%/-7% year over year, respectively. Among them, the price in September alone fell about 21% year on year to 72.9 US dollars, or caused some inventory loss. However, the product price side was affected by the slow recovery in downstream demand, and the price difference of major products narrowed. Among them, the price difference of PX/PTA/polyester filament was -24%/-1%/+41% month-on-month, respectively. The company's 24Q3 refining and chemical products/PTA/new materials achieved sales volume of 5.85/3.35/1.26 million tons, respectively, +10%/-14%/+17%, and +63%/-9%/-12% month-on-month. The significant month-on-month increase in refining and chemical products was mainly due to refining and chemical equipment maintenance in Q2, gradual restoration of production in Q3, a month-on-month decline in PTA and new material products, or poor demand for mainly downstream products; the average product price was 5700/4908/8211 yuan/ton, respectively, 1%/-4% year-on-year /-3 %, +4%/-7%/+4% month-on-month, respectively. The volume and price of PTA products fell sharply, or dragged down the third quarter results. The 24Q3 company achieved a gross sales margin of 7.78%, -5.8/-4.8pct year-over-year, respectively; achieved a net sales margin of 1.67%, and -2.5/-1.8 pct year-over-year, respectively. The expense ratio for the third quarter was about 3.4%, -0.7% YoY/ -1.7%, respectively. Mainly management and financial expenses continued to decline.
Promote overseas strategic cooperation and strengthen confidence in long-term development. On September 11, Hengli Group and Saudi Aramco signed a strategic cooperation agreement to reaffirm the firm commitment of the two sides to the proposed equity transactions and commercial cooperation involved in the memorandum of understanding signed on April 22, '24. Subsequently, Saudi Aramco plans to acquire 10% of Hengli Petrochemical's shares and carry out strategic cooperation in crude oil supply, raw material supply, product procurement, technology licensing, etc. The cooperation between the two sides will further improve the company's raw material supply system and promote the upgrading of the company's international strategic layout.
Production capacity for new materials will be put into place to boost the company's performance growth and structural improvement. As of 24Q3, the company's balance of projects under construction was about 45.1 billion yuan, a decrease of about 7.3 billion yuan from mid-year; the company's fixed asset balance was about 141.5 billion yuan, an increase of about 8.2 billion yuan over the middle of the year, and some projects have been converted one after another. Looking back, the 1.6 million tons/year high-performance resin and new materials project is expected to be fully put into operation in the second half of '24; the 12-line functional film and lithium battery diaphragm project at Kanghui New Materials Nantong Site is progressing steadily, and it is expected that all will be completed and put into operation in the first half of 2025. As projects under construction are put into operation one after another, the company's capital expenditure is expected to slow down in the future. The company is expected to further improve the dynamic balance between performance growth and shareholder returns, and actively return the shareholders.
Investment advice: Considering that it will take time for downstream demand to recover, we lowered the company's 24-26 net profit forecast to 7.327, 10.186, and 12.46 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to 24-26 EPS of 1.04, 1.45, and 1.77 yuan (previously 1.25, 1.61, and 1.89 yuan, respectively), and the PE corresponding to the current market value is 14x, 10x, and 8x, respectively. Referring to comparable companies in the same industry and the company's historical valuation center, the company was given 12 times PE in 2025, corresponding to a target price of 17.4 yuan for 25 years, maintaining a “strong push” rating.
Risk warning: Crude oil prices fluctuate greatly, downstream demand recovery falls short of expectations, production capacity construction progress under construction falls short of expectations, etc.
