In previous autumns, it was often the time for the apple's new phones to sell well, but this year, this situation seems to have changed.

Finance Associated Press reporters visited multiple electronic product stores in Shenzhen and found that new iPhones, which were often out of stock at this time in previous years, are unusually participating in various price reduction activities this year, with discounts exceeding one thousand yuan. This may be related to the fact that iPhones are not selling as well as before.

However, companies such as Lens Technology and Lingyi Itech have informed Caixin reporters that the company's current production is all normal, "the capacity utilization rate should be basically the same, not lower than last year." A person from Shenzhen Desay Battery Technology's securities department told Caixin reporters.

Apart from the iPhone, bad news has emerged for Apple's venture into the virtual reality field with VisionPro, as reports suggest that the product will cease production by the end of the year. Although several industry sources have told Finance Associated Press that VisionPro's business contribution is very small and will not have any impact on the company's overall performance, this is clearly not a successful attempt for Apple.

Several business lines have not progressed as expected, even for Apple, which dominates the consumer electronics industry, new growth opportunities are urgently needed. Currently, there are constant rumors about Apple's foldable phone and AI features, but what the market is most concerned about is whether these innovations can bring a new growth curve to Apple. Several analysts have told Finance Associated Press reporters that the expected launch date for Apple's foldable phone is the second half of 2026 or 2027, while AI features will drive iPhone revenue growth in a stepwise manner.

Poor sales lead to price reductions for the iPhone.

New iPhone models, which were in high demand at the same time in previous years, are no longer the popular 'hot items' this year.

"This is a government subsidy program, and this year is the first time the iPhone has participated," said a Shenzhen Qianhai Shundian employee to Caijing reporters. Currently, purchasing an Apple phone at Shundian in Shenzhen can enjoy a 10% discount, up to 1000 yuan off.

In addition to offline stores, Apple's official flagship store also announced the Tmall November 11 shopping festival discounts on October 20. Surprisingly, the official store participated in direct discounts just one month after the launch of the new devices. It is understood that the event went on sale on the night of October 21, with each phone in the iPhone 16 series receiving a 500 yuan discount. Furthermore, by participating in the trade-in activity, a maximum subsidy of 1100 yuan is offered. When combined, the purchase of the iPhone 16 series can be discounted by up to 1600 yuan.

Also decreasing along with the retail price in stores is the second-hand resale price. A mobile phone recycling merchant showed a recycling quote to Caijing reporters, indicating that the recycling prices for the base model and iPhone 16 Pro Max were basically the same as the new phone recycling prices from the same period last year, but the Pro version's recycling price dropped by 300 yuan.

It is no secret that iPhone 16 sales have fallen short of expectations. Ivan Lam, a senior analyst at Counterpoint, told Caijing reporters that according to his company's observation data, in the first three weeks after the release of the 16 series, sales of the 16 Pro increased compared to the 15 Pro, but sales of the 16 series base model decreased. In this scenario, iPhone's overall sales in these three weeks decreased by 2% year-on-year.

"We have a pessimistic view on the overall sales of the iPhone 16 series in the future. In the coming weeks, there will be a wave of new flagship products from Chinese manufacturers, which will further pressure Apple," Ivan further explained to Caijing reporters.

Meanwhile, the news of Apple reducing orders for the iPhone 16 is widespread. Guo Mingchi, a well-known Apple analyst at TF International Securities, stated in his latest report that from the fourth quarter of 2024 to the first half of 2025, orders for the iPhone 16 series have been significantly cut, totaling around 10 million units, with the majority being non-Pro models. This adjustment has led to a reduction in iPhone 16 production in the second quarter of 2024 to around 84 million units, and the expected production in the fourth quarter has dropped to 80 million units, below the same period last year's 84 million units.

As for the validity of the order reduction situation, Caijing reporters have sent interview outlines to Apple, but as of the deadline for this article, no response has been received.

Despite the 16 series not meeting market expectations, several Apple suppliers recently told Caijing reporters that the company's production status is good.

"Everything is proceeding as normal in our production, and the production capacity is better than previous years," a representative from Lens Technology's securities department told a journalist from Caixin Media over the phone in the capacity of an investor.

"It is not convenient to disclose specific information about clients, but the related business accounts for a relatively small proportion of the overall company," a representative from Goertek Inc.'s (002241.SZ) securities department stated.

"Currently, I have not received any relevant information. If it is indeed as you mentioned, only the base model of iPhone 16 (being cut from the order), the impact on our estimation would be minimal," a representative from Shenzhen Desay Battery Technology's securities department informed a journalist from Caixin Media.

VisionPro may cease production, but the impact on the industry chain is expected to be minimal.

In addition to smartphones, Apple's new business, VisionPro, also received bad news.

According to media reports, due to insufficient content and high prices, demand for Apple's Vision Pro headset has been poor. Apple has significantly reduced the production volume of the Vision Pro headset and may completely cease production of this version of the device by the end of 2024. Caixin Media journalists have sent an interview outline to Apple regarding this situation, but as of the publication deadline, no response has been received.

VisionPro, as Apple's foray into the virtual reality field, has always been highly anticipated by the market. However, after Apple officially launched VisionPro in February this year, the product has not been selling well due to its high international market price starting at $3500 and domestic market price starting at 29999 yuan. The product has been struggling to gain traction.

Under these circumstances, VisionPro has revised its shipment expectations multiple times. In April this year, Ming-Chi Kuo stated that Apple had reduced its shipment expectations for the Vision Pro headset in 2024 from the original forecast of 0.7 to 0.8 million units to 0.4 to 0.45 million units. He believes that this adjustment is based on a decrease in pre-sales orders outside the U.S., indicating a 'sharp drop in demand beyond expectations' in the U.S.

According to Counterpoint Research, Apple sold around 0.37 million units of head-mounted displays in the first three quarters of this year, and is expected to sell up to another 0.05 million units by the end of the year.

However, the industry chain is not panicking about the news of VisionPro being discontinued.

"In terms of this product (VisionPro) alone, its contribution to our revenue is actually very small, almost negligible, because its sales volume itself is not very high, and its production capacity is not very high," a person from the securities department of Lens Technology told Finance Associated Press journalists over the phone in an investor capacity.

Some industry chain insiders also bluntly told Finance Associated Press journalists that the product is not very profitable, "The market feedback for VisionPro-related business is not good, sales are not good, and production is not good either."

What other cards does Apple have to play?

Innovation is the lifeblood of technology companies. Apple, which once impressed the world with numerous new technologies and features, is now clearly struggling and finding new growth points has become its top priority.

Some analysts told Finance Associated Press journalists that AI is one of them.

Recently, Apple CEO Cook visited China again, with reports citing sources as saying that this time Apple executives collectively arrived in the Chinese market. Besides continuing to coordinate with relevant departments on the follow-up AI artificial intelligence software and product access mechanism information of Apple, they also aim to seek AI content and data service providers in mainland China and reach a certain understanding with relevant departments, intending to have the relevant departments recommend manufacturers they approve.

On October 23, Cook publicly responded to when Apple's ai will enter China in an interview, "We are working hard to promote this. There is a very specific regulatory process behind this, and we need to go through this process. We also hope to bring it to Chinese consumers as soon as possible."

Currently, Apple's ai feature Apple Intelligence is still heavily restricted by region. According to official information, Apple Intelligence has started testing the US English version in October; Chinese, French, Japanese, and Spanish versions will be launched next year, but the specific timing is undecided.

Ivan told the media that considering the diversity of functions and release regions, the comprehensive impact of Apple Intelligence is expected to gradually become apparent over time. Therefore, Apple Intelligence will drive iPhone revenue growth in a stepped manner, rather than a single super cycle.

In addition, there have been increasing rumors about Apple's folding device recently. Since the beginning of this year, Apple has publicly disclosed several patents related to foldable screens. A patent named "Electronic Device with Display and Touch Sensor Structure" has attracted market attention, revealing images of this technology applied to three-fold and four-fold phones, sparking speculation about Apple's plans for a four-fold phone.

"Based on current observations of the supply chain trends, Apple's plans to launch a foldable screen device seem to be increasingly clear. The first foldable screen phone is expected to be launched in the second half of 2026 or 2027." TrendForce analyst Fan Boyu told the media that amidst a lack of significant innovation in traditional flat-panel mobile hardware, Apple may have to release a foldable phone to meet market demand. He believes that while Apple will continue to focus on patents, the actual product design will adopt a more conservative strategy, hence, the breakthrough may not be very innovative.

Editor/Lambor