基本盘企稳修复，经营调整初具成效。1）分产品来看，Q3 受益于低基数+内部调整，酱油基本盘开始修复；食用油收入下滑主要系下游囤货时点差异及高基数扰动。24Q3 酱油/鸡精鸡粉/食用油/其他产品收入分别为7.41/1.81/1.30/1.47 亿元， 同比+0.5%/+14.0%/-9.2%/-9.0%。2）分地区来看，主销区动销改善，外埠区域加快网点渗透。24Q3 南部/东部/中西部/北部地区收入同比+1.2%/+8.6%/-12.9%/2.5%。24 年前三季度经销商净增加311家，主要集中在中西部（+117）、北部（+176）；地级市/区县市场开发率持续提升。Brief performance review
On October 25, the company released its three-quarter report. 24Q1-Q3 achieved revenue of 3.946 billion yuan, -0.17% year over year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother 0.552 billion yuan, +19.25% year over year. Among them, 24Q3 achieved revenue of 1.328 billion yuan, +2.23% year-on-year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 0.213 billion yuan, or +27.66% year-on-year. Among them, Delicious Fresh 24Q3's revenue was 1.251 billion yuan, +2.7% YoY; net profit to mother was 1.206 billion yuan, +30.0% YoY, and the performance slightly exceeded expectations.
Management analysis
The basic market has been steadily restored, and management adjustments are beginning to bear fruit. 1) By product, Q3 benefited from low base+internal adjustments, and the basic soy sauce market began to be repaired; the decline in edible oil revenue was mainly due to differences in the timing of downstream stocking and high base disturbances. Revenue from 24Q3 soy sauce/chicken essence, chicken powder/cooking oil/other products was 7.41/0.181/0.13/0.147 billion yuan, respectively, +0.5%/+14.0%/-9.2%/-9.0% compared with the same period last year. 2) By region, sales in major sales areas have improved, and foreign port regions have accelerated network penetration. Revenue in the South/East/Midwest/North region was +1.2%/+8.6%/-12.9%/2.5% YoY in 24Q3. There was a net increase of 311 dealers in the first three quarters of 24, mainly in the Midwest (+117) and the North (+176); market development rates in prefecture-level cities/districts and counties continued to increase.
Declining costs+shrinking rates greatly unleashed profit elasticity. 1) Benefiting from the increase in the scale of large single products, the year-on-year decline in logistics costs and packaging materials and accessories prices, and the gross margin of delicious food products improved year-on-year and month-on-month in 24Q3, +4.9pct/+1.3pct, respectively. 2) The company learned the lessons of Q2, was more prudent in pricing, and the rate was significantly optimized during the period. 24Q3's sales/management/R&D rates were -1.86pct/+1.10pct/-0.72pct, respectively. 3) Profitability improved significantly during the same period due to land acquisition payments received and Zhonghu Precision's business transformation. The 24Q3 company's comprehensive gross margin/ net profit margin was 38.82%/17.05%, respectively, +4.96/+3.93pct. Profit flexibility was prominent. We expect continuous improvement under the low base of Q4.
Q3 Internal adjustments have paid off, and it is expected that the reform will continue. On the basis of absorbing the Q2 phased reform experience, the company made timely adjustments to strategies, deepening marketing reforms, and strengthening R&D innovation. Q3 shows the results of the adjustments from the dismantling of business details. We expect the company to firmly establish the direction of reform and strive to achieve the development goal of re-creating a new kitchen state.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
The company's net profit for 24-26 is estimated to be 0.75/0.9/1.07 billion yuan, respectively, -56%/+20%/+18%, respectively. The corresponding PE is 21x/17x/14x, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Risks such as food safety risks; new product releases falling short of expectations; increased market competition.