Emerging markets outlook: Depending on the election results, it is worth paying attention to whether buybacks will dominate or whether the focus will shift from low-priced stocks to leading stocks.

Fisco Japan · Oct 26 12:28

■物色の対象は主力株に変わるか

今週の新興市場は下落。同時期の騰落率は、日経平均が－2.74％だったのに対して、グロース市場指数は－5.50％、グロース市場250指数は－5.47％と、グロース市場の弱さが目立った。衆議院議員総選挙に対する警戒感や足下の地合いの悪さなどが影響し、プライム市場以上に積極的な買いは手控えられ、売買代金は10営業日連続で1000億円を割り込んだ。25日の出来高は2.7億株と8月19日以来のボリュームとなったが、消去法的な100円前後の低位株売買が活発化したことが要因。時価総額が大きい主力株は総じて弱い相場展開となり、グロース市場250指数は、8月15日以来となる600ポイント割れとなった。

時価総額上位銘柄では、タイミー＜215A＞が上場来安値を更新したほか、決算発表後売られていたティーケーピー＜3479＞は年初来安値を更新。GENDA＜9166＞は10月2日の上場来高値2961円からの下落率が20％を超えた。夢展望＜3185＞、フルッタフルッタ＜2586＞、モダリス＜4883＞、ジェリービーンズグループ＜3070＞など100円以下の低位銘柄は、投資資金が向かい買われた。21日札証アンビシャスに上場した伸和ホールディングス＜7118＞の初値は、公開価格を7.3％下回る1530円となったほか、22日グロース市場に上場したSchoo＜264A＞の初値は、公開価格を10.3％上回る761円。23日プライム市場に上場した今年最大のIPOである東京地下鉄＜9023＞の初値は、公開価格を35.8％上回る1630円、25日プライム市場に上場したリガク・ホールディングス＜268A＞の初値は、公開価格を4.4％下回る1205円となった。

■市場の関心が高いIPOに期待

来週の新興市場は、10月27日の衆議院選挙の結果次第で一段安もありえよう。自民党、公明党の政権与党が過半数割れとなれば、プライム市場同様、売り優勢となるだろう。一方、政権与党が過半数を維持し、政権に対する警戒感が後退した場合、買戻し優勢となり、物色の対象が低位株から主力株に変わる可能性はある。ただ、投資家心理の弱さや期待される政策の柱が乏しいことなどから、仮に買戻し優勢となっても変化率はプライム市場に劣ると考える。GENDAやインテグラル＜5842＞など主力株を中心とした物色で、売買代金が1000億円を超えるしっかりとした地合いとなるかに注目したい。

来週は、28日に音声認識処理などを手掛けるHmcomm＜265A＞、29日にExpert AIを活用したAIプロダクトを手掛けるSapeet＜269A＞がそれぞれグロース市場に上場する。ともに市場の関心が高い銘柄のため、順調な初値形成や活発なセカンダリー投資が期待できよう。両銘柄が堅調だった場合、音声認識を手掛けるアドバンスト・メディア＜3773＞や、AI関連のAI inside＜4488＞、Laboro.AI＜5586＞、ヘッドウォータース＜4011＞のほか、直近IPOのAiロボティクス＜247A＞などに関心が向かう可能性はある。

Will the focus shift to main stock?

This week, the emerging markets declined. While the Nikkei Average fell by 2.74% during the same period, the Growth Market Index and the Growth Market 250 Index both declined by 5.50% and 5.47% respectively. The weakness in the growth market was prominent, affected by concerns about the House of Representatives general election and the current market conditions. There was restrained buying activity compared to the main board market, with trading volume falling below 100 billion yen for 10 consecutive business days. The trading volume on the 25th was 0.27 billion shares, the highest since August 19th, mainly due to active trading of low-priced stocks around 100 yen. Main stocks with large market capitalization generally experienced a weak market development, leading the Growth Market 250 Index to break below 600 points for the first time since August 15th.

Among the top market capitalization stocks, Time <215A> hit a new all-time low after listing, while TKP <3479>, which had been sold off after its earnings report, hit a new low for the year. GENDA <9166> saw a drop of over 20% from its all-time high of 2961 yen on October 2nd. Low-priced stocks such as Yumetenbo <3185>, Fruit-a-Fruit-a <2586>, Modalis <4883>, Jelly Beans Group <3070> trading below 100 yen attracted investment funds. The opening price of Shinwa Holdings <7118>, listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange Ambitious on the 21st, was 1530 yen, 7.3% below the offering price. On the other hand, Schoo <264A>, listed on the Growth Market on the 22nd, had an opening price of 761 yen, 10.3% above the offering price. The opening price of this year's largest IPO on the 23rd on the main board, Tokyo Metro <9023>, was 1630 yen, 35.8% higher than the offering price, while the opening price of LIGAC Holdings <268A>, listed on the main board on the 25th, was 1205 yen, 4.4% below the offering price.

Expectations are high for IPOs that the market is interested in

Next week in the emerging markets, there could be a further decline depending on the results of the House of Representatives election on October 27th. If the ruling parties, the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito, fall below a majority, similar to the main board market, selling pressure is likely to strengthen. On the other hand, if the ruling parties maintain a majority and concerns about the government recede, leading to buying opportunities, the focus of investment may shift from low-priced stocks to main stocks. However, due to weak investor sentiment and lack of significant policy changes, even if there is a shift towards buying opportunities, it is expected to be lower than the main board market. Keep an eye on trading activities exceeding 100 billion yen in focused stock picking on main stocks such as GENDA and Integral <5842>.

Next week, Hmcomm <265A>, specializing in speech recognition processing on the 28th, and Sapeet <269A>, which handles AI products utilizing Expert AI on the 29th, will be listed on the Growth Market. As both stocks garner high market interest, it is expected that there will be steady initial pricing and active secondary investments. If both stocks perform well, attention may shift to companies like Advanced Media <3773> involved in speech recognition, AI-related companies like AI Inside <4488>, Laboro.AI <5586>, Headwaters <4011>, and recent IPO Ai Robotics <247A>.

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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新興市場見通し：選挙の結果次第では買戻し優勢か、物色対象が低位株から主力株に変化するかに注目

Emerging markets outlook: Depending on the election results, it is worth paying attention to whether buybacks will dominate or whether the focus will shift from low-priced stocks to leading stocks.

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