维持增持。公司前三季度营收 869.4 亿元/-9.5%，归母净利 10 亿元/+12%，扣非8.93 亿元/+27.3%；Q3 单季营收310 亿元/-1.7%，归母净利4.31 亿元/+11.9%，扣非4 亿元/+45.2%。因核心业务增长亮眼，上调预测2024-26 年EPS 至0.87/0.96/1.05 元(原0.83/0.93/1 元)增速10/10.4/9.8%；维持目标价10.42 元，维持增持。Introduction to this report:
The Q3 deduction increased by 45%. The core business continued to grow rapidly, and the business prospects are promising.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an increase in holdings. The company's revenue for the first three quarters was 86.94 billion yuan/ -9.5%, net profit of 1 billion yuan/ +12%, not 0.893 billion yuan/ +27.3%; Q3 single quarter revenue was 31 billion yuan/ -1.7%, net profit attributable to mother 0.431 billion yuan/ +11.9%, net profit of not 0.4 billion yuan/ +45.2%. Due to impressive growth in core business, EPS was raised to a growth rate of 10/10.4/9.8% in 2024-26 to 0.87/0.96/1.05 yuan (previously 0.83/0.93/1 yuan); maintain the target price of 10.42 yuan to maintain the increase.
Q3 Deductions were not high, and gross and net interest rates and operating cash flow were impressive. 1) Q1-3 revenue growth rates for a single quarter were -23.4/-3.9/ -1.7%, respectively, 5.1/19.1/ 11.9%, and 5/24.9/ 46.2% after deduction; Q3 declined significantly by 0.031 billion yuan, 2023Q3 saw a significant return of 0.11 billion yuan due to non-operating income and impairment; 2) Gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 6.57% /+1.47pct, net profit margin 2.95% /+0.45pct, Q3 6.73/ 3.25%, respectively A month-on-month increase; 3) Operating cash flow of 3.98 billion yuan/ +1043%, mainly due to increased advance sales receipts and optimized payment methods 4) The period expense ratio was 2.84% /+0.6pct, of which the sales/management/finance/R&D expense ratios were 1.41/0.81/0.16/ 0.46%, respectively, +0.25/+0.13/+0.11/+0.13pc.
It plans to transfer high-quality assets and is optimistic that core businesses such as shipbuilding will rise to the next level. 1) The announcement intends to transfer shares in Jirun Real Estate and Lanke Hi-Tech, which will support the company to strengthen the chain and achieve win-win development in related business; 2) Advanced manufacturing: Dachai exports exceeded 0.097 billion US dollars/ +244%, and new export orders for outdoor power products grew by 27%; Xindayang was selected as a national specialized new giant enterprise with a total delivery of 19 ships/ +26.7%. By the end of September, 84 ships were in hand, and production schedule will reach 2028; 3) Textile and service: cumulative export signing of 1.09 billion dollars/ +20.9 billions/ 8%; home Sales of the textile business on overseas e-commerce channels such as Amazon/private brand independent sites increased by 38.17%; branded school uniforms were shipped more than 0.2 billion yuan/ +14% in September; 4) Supply chain: total import and export volume of 7.081 billion US dollars/ +4%, export and shipment of mechanical and electrical equipment 0.261 billion dollars/ +363%.
Based on two-wheel development, dual-cycle drive, and dual-core empowerment, the benchmark for central enterprises can be expected to continue to grow.
1) The company continues to expand the domestic market, and actively explore the potential of emerging markets along the Belt and Road. The total import and export volume in the first three quarters was 9.9 billion US dollars/ +8%, including exports of 4.16 billion US dollars/ +16% and imports of 5.74 billion US dollars/ +3%; 2) Adhering to scientific and technological innovation, product competitiveness was continuously optimized, such as the smooth shipment of the first batch of orders using bio-based nylon; 3) Key employees are in place, and the benchmark for undervalued and high-dividend central enterprises is optimistic about future growth.
Risk warning: commodity price fluctuations, overseas economic fluctuations, increased competition, etc.
