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三维化学(002469):三季度业绩延续承压 期待新兴业务放量

3D Chemical (002469): Third quarter results continue to be under pressure, looking forward to the expansion of emerging businesses

tianfeng Securities ·  Oct 25

Third-quarter results are under pressure, and we look forward to the expansion of emerging businesses

The company's 24Q1-3 achieved operating income of 1.693 billion yuan, -15.01% year-on-year, and realized net profit of 0.146 billion yuan, or -26.44%, of which Q3 achieved revenue of 0.668 billion yuan in a single quarter, +0.89% year-on-year, and realized net profit of 0.062 billion yuan, or -26.4% year-on-year. The petrochemical industry continued to decline in the third quarter. The price of most chemical products continued to decline in the third quarter. Although Q3 revenue improved in the single quarter However, performance continues to be under pressure. Looking back, the company has plenty of orders in hand, and investment in emerging projects such as cellulose continues to advance, which may provide a good basis for growth in the company's performance after production is put into operation.

There are plenty of orders on hand, and gross margin may have room for improvement

24Q3's gross margin in a single quarter was 20.82%, -1.93pct year on year, and the cumulative gross margin for the first three quarters was 19.7%, year-on-year -1.58pct. We determined that gross margin was under pressure or mainly due to the decline in the company's chemical product prices. Take octanol as an example. According to Jin Lianchuang data, octanol prices have continued to decline since 24 years. The average value of the 24Q3 octanol price index was 8701, -23.5% year on year. However, starting in mid-September, octanol ended its long-term bottoming trend and entered a gradual rebound situation. Taking the Shandong market as an example, the price of octanol rose one after another from 7,700 yuan/ton to a recent peak in early October. The price was 9,500 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 1,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 23.4%. Considering that the company has flexible switching production capacity for different chemical products, price increases are expected to provide some support for subsequent gross margins. In terms of engineering business, at the end of 24Q3, the company had signed an unfinished order of about 1.9 billion yuan. The EPC project of North Huajin United Petrochemical Co., Ltd., which had previously won the bid, achieved cumulative revenue of 0.059 billion yuan and a cumulative total of 0.33 billion yuan.

Expenses were not effectively diluted, and cash flow improved significantly

The 24Q1-3 company's expense ratio for the period was 11.01%, +1.99pct year over year. Among them, sales, management, R&D, and finance expenses were +0.24, +1.46, +0.14, and +0.15 pct, respectively. Due to the decline in revenue, expenses were not effectively diluted. The total asset and credit impairment losses of 24Q1-3 company rushed back 0.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.017 billion yuan. Under the combined influence, 24Q1-3 net margin was 8.84%, -1.5pct year over year. In terms of cash flow, the net CFO of 24Q1-3 was 0.25 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 0.163 billion yuan. The revenue ratio was +29.95 pcts to 123.1% year over year, and the payout ratio was +16.05 pcts to 113.3% year over year.

The layout of new energy and new materials supports medium- to long-term development, maintains abundant orders from “buy” rating companies, and progresses steadily with new material projects. It is expected that performance will gradually increase in the future. We continue to be optimistic about the company's medium- to long-term growth. Considering that the company's performance in the first three quarters was under pressure, and profitability and revenue growth fell short of our previous expectations, we lowered our 24-26 net profit forecast to 2.6, 2.8, and 3.1 (previous values were 0.32, 0.36, 0.42 billion yuan), and -9.4%, +10.3%, and +11.7%, respectively. The corresponding PE was 13.8, 12.5, and 11.2 times, respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.

Risk warning: Prices of raw materials fluctuated greatly, settlement of engineering orders fell short of expectations, and the prosperity of the petrochemical industry declined beyond expectations.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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