业绩符合预期 ，维持“增持”评级。考虑到上半财年净关店节奏与黄金借贷未变现损失对利润端影响，下调预计公司2025-2027 财年归母净利润为59.51/64.96/69.38 亿港元（原值63.21/69.12/74.53 亿港元），对应EPS 分别为0.60/0.65/0.69 港元（原值0.63/0.69/0.75 港元），给予2025 财年15 倍PE，下调目标价至9.00 港元（原值9.45港元），维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
FY2025Q2's business performance is in line with expectations, and the continued upward trend in gold prices is impressive; considering the increase in the structural contribution of gold pricing and the increase in inventory value of rising gold prices, it is expected that FY2025 profit margins will be boosted.
Key points of investment:
The performance was in line with expectations, and the “gain” rating was maintained. Considering the impact of net store closures in the first half of the fiscal year and unrealized losses on gold loans on the profit side, the estimated net profit for the 2025-2027 fiscal year was reduced to HK$5.951/6.496/6.938 billion (original value HK$6.321/6.912/7.453 billion), and the corresponding EPS was HK$0.60/0.65/0.69 (original value HK$0.63/0.69/0.75), giving 15 times PE in FY2025, and the target price was lowered to HK$9.00 ( (Original value HK$9.45), maintaining the “Overweight” rating.
Performance summary: The company released the main operating data for July-September 2024. The retail value of FY2025Q2 fell 21.0% year on year in a single quarter. Among them: retail value in mainland China fell 19.4% year on year, Hong Kong, Macao and other markets fell 31.0% year on year. Same-store sales in mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau all declined during the FY2025Q2 season. Mainly due to external macroeconomic factors, gold prices continued to reach new highs and continued to affect consumer desire, but the decline in same-store sales in mainland China during the quarter and during the 11th Golden Week showed a narrowing trend.
Gold prices continued to rise, benefiting from the high price increase in gold prices, the release of demand. FY2025Q2 same-store sales in mainland China -24.3%, same-store sales in Hong Kong and Macau, China -30.8%, of which: ① same-store sales in Hong Kong, China -27.8%; ② same-store sales in Macau, China -40.2%. The Hong Kong and Macau regions of China are affected by changes in the consumption patterns and preferences of residents traveling during summer vacations and mainland travelers.
Priced gold products benefited from the release of demand during the sharp rise in gold prices, and the share of FY2025Q2 in the retail value of fixed gold in mainland China increased from 5.0% in FY2024Q2 to 12.8%. In FY2025Q2, there was a net decrease of 145 jewellery retail outlets in mainland China. As of September 30, 2024, the total number of the Group's jewellery retail outlets was 7113, and the number of retail outlets for other brands was 233.
The price of the gold category continues to rise, and it will still take time for the inlay to recover. FY2025Q2 Mainland inlay jewellery, platinum and karat gold jewellery sales were -27.6%. The average sales price for the quarter increased from HK$8200 to HK$9200 in FY2024Q2; same-store sales of gold jewellery and products -24.7%, and the average sales price for the quarter increased from HK$5600 to HK$6400 in FY2024Q2. FY2025Q2 same-store sales of inlaid jewellery, platinum and karat gold jewellery in Hong Kong and Macau, China -16.6%. The average selling price dropped from HK$17,000 to HK$15,400 in FY2024Q2; same-store sales of gold jewellery and products increased from HK$8800 to HK$9400 in FY2024Q2.
Risk warning: Fluctuations in gold prices, weak high-end consumption affect the same store, store expansion falls short of expectations, etc.
