业绩符合预期，铅锌锗价格上涨带动三季度业绩环比回升。2024 年前三季度，国内铅锌锗价格整体走强，分别同比+12.3%、+4.3%、+29%，其中三季度铅锌锗均价分别同比+13.3%、+12.4%、+65.9%，分别环比+1.6%、+0.9%、+59%，但铅锌加工费下滑明显，前三季度国产铅、锌加工费分别同比-38%、-42.9%，其中三季度铅锌加工费分别同比-54.5%、-66.3%，分别环比-27.8%、-44.6%。Matters:
The company released its three-quarter report for 2024. In the first three quarters, the company achieved operating income of 14.652 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.19%; net profit to mother of 1.474 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.79%; net profit after deducting non-attributable net profit of 1.365 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.17%; in the third quarter, the company achieved operating income of 4.825 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4%; net profit to mother of 0.571 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline 2.97%, up 37.5% month-on-month; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 0.545 billion yuan, down 4.59% year on year, up 51.56% month on month.
Commentary:
The results were in line with expectations, and the rise in lead-zinc-germanium prices led to a month-on-month recovery in the third quarter. In the first three quarters of 2024, domestic lead-zinc-germanium prices strengthened overall, +12.3%, and +29%, respectively. Among them, the average price of lead-zinc-germanium in the third quarter was +13.3%, +12.4%, and +65.9%, respectively, +1.6%, +0.9% month-on-month, respectively, but lead-zinc processing fees declined significantly. In the first three quarters, domestic lead and zinc processing fees were -38% and -42.9%, respectively. 4.6%
Due to a sharp drop in lead-zinc smelting costs, the company achieved operating income of 14.652 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year decrease of 11.19%; net profit to mother was 1.474 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.79%. Of these, the third quarter achieved operating income of 4.825 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.48%, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4%; and net profit to mother of 0.571 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.5%.
Expenses increased slightly during the third quarter of the company period. The company's total sales expenses, management expenses, financial expenses and R&D expenses for the third quarter were 0.35 billion yuan, +37.7% YoY, +31.2% month-on-month, and the cost ratio for the period was 7.2%, +2.5pct YoY, +2.1pct month-on-month, of which R&D expenses were 0.036 billion yuan, +154% YoY and +48% month-on-month, due to the company's increased investment in R&D. In addition, the company's asset impairment loss of -0.02 billion yuan was mainly due to inventory price reduction tests carried out at the end of each month according to market prices and processing fee space, and preparation for inventory price drops according to test results; non-operating expenses of 0.012 billion yuan, +284% year-on-month, and +6.8% month-on-month, mainly due to an increase in current donation expenses over the same period of the previous year and loss of asset scrapping; and 0.04 billion yuan compared to the same period of the previous year. Caused by an increase.
Concentrate production increased month-on-month in the third quarter, and smelting product production declined month-on-month. In the first three quarters of 2024, Huize Mining's beneficiation plant stopped production due to the construction of quality and efficiency improvement projects, and Rongda Mining shut down part of its production system in the first three quarters due to safety production license processing issues. The company's lead-zinc concentrate metal production was 0.2303 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.0276 million tons, including 0.0586 million tons of lead, -12% year-on-year, and 0.1717 million tons of zinc metal, -10% year-on-year, and the company's zinc product output 0.3815 million tons. YoY -1%, 0.1285 million tons of lead products, -3% year over year, 51.18 tons of germanium products, up 16% year on year; in the third quarter, the company produced 0.0226 million tons of lead metal, -10% year over year, +41% month over month, 0.0587 million tons of zinc metal, -15% year over year, +28% month on month, zinc product 0.1126 million tons, year on year -8%, month-on-month, 0.0435 million tons of lead products, -12% year on year, ring Compared to +4%, the production of germanium products containing germanium was 16.89 tons, +38% year over year and -10% month over month.
Investment advice: Considering the rise in zinc prices and the decline in smelting and processing costs, we expect the company to achieve net profit of 1.86/2.27/2.34 billion yuan in 2024-2026 (previous value was 1.862/2.039/2.122 billion yuan), with year-on-year increases of 29.8%, 22.2%, and 2.7%, respectively. Referring to comparable company valuations, the company was given 14 times PE in 2025, corresponding to the target price of 6.2 yuan, maintaining a “strong push” rating.
Risk warning: Prices of metal products fluctuate greatly; project expansion falls short of expectations.
