1）中国市场：2024 年前三季度出货量同比+5.3%，其中雷鸟品牌电视同比+46.6%实现高速增长；同时公司高端大屏化战略在国内逐步见效，前三季度国内出货平均尺寸达到61.5 吋，75 吋及以上电视出货量同比+14.3%，出货量占比达32.7%（+2.5pct）。2）欧洲市场：2024 年前三季度出货量同比+35.5%，其中75 吋及以上出货量同比+126.5%，增速亮眼；2024 年1-8 月，TCL 电视在法国、瑞典、波兰零售量排名第二，在西班牙、希腊及捷克排名第三。3）北美市场：2024 年前三季度出货量同比+8.2%，增速由负转正；其中第三季度出货量同比+27.5%，主系公司精准营销叠加主动调整渠道、产品结构的中高端化的策略的见效；前三季度75 吋及以上电视出货量同比+72.6%，出货量占比达9.7%（+3.6pct），零售量市占率稳居美国市场第二。4）新兴市场：前三季度出货量同比+6.0%，规模持续稳定增长。其中拉美、中东非市场前三季度出货量分别同比+12.1%、+22.7%；公司在澳洲、菲律宾、缅甸零售量保持行业第一，在沙特排名第二，在越南、泰国、韩国、巴西及阿根廷排名第三。Event: On October 23, 2024, TCL Electronics released TCL TV global shipment data for the first three quarters of 2024.
2024Q3 Global TV shipments are growing rapidly, and the proportion of large-screen products continues to rise. Global shipments of TCL TVs in the first three quarters of 2024 totaled 20.01 million units (+12.9%), and 2024Q3 shipments reached 7.49 million units (+19.7%). The average global shipment size in the first three quarters of 2024 reached 51.8 inches (+1.3 inches). Among them, global shipments of 65-inch and above and 75-inch and above products were +16.8% and +35.3%, respectively, accounting for 24.3% (+0.8pct) and 11.8% (+2.0pct) respectively. The company's global high-end large-screen strategy continued to be effective.
Domestic Thunderbird brands experienced high growth in the first three quarters, and the growth rate of shipments in North America recovered due to rapid growth in Q3.
1) Chinese market: Shipments in the first three quarters of 2024 were +5.3% year-on-year, with Thunderbird brand TVs achieving rapid growth of +46.6%; at the same time, the company's high-end large-screen strategy gradually paid off in China. The average size of domestic shipments in the first three quarters reached 61.5 inches, and 75-inch TV shipments were +14.3% year-on-year, accounting for 32.7% (+2.5pct) of shipments. 2) European market: Shipments in the first three quarters of 2024 were +35.5%, with shipments of 75 inches and above +126.5% year-on-year, with impressive growth; from January to August 2024, TCL TV ranked second in retail sales in France, Sweden, and Poland, and third in Spain, Greece and the Czech Republic. 3) North American market: Shipments in the first three quarters of 2024 were +8.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate changed from negative to positive; among them, shipments in the third quarter were +27.5%, mainly the effect of the company's accurate marketing combined with active channel and mid-high-end product structure strategies; 72.6% of 75-inch TV and above were shipped in the first three quarters, accounting for 9.7% (+3.6pct). The retail market share steadily ranked second in the US market. 4) Emerging markets: Shipments in the first three quarters were +6.0% year-on-year, and the scale continued to grow steadily. Among them, shipments to the Latin American and Middle Eastern African markets in the first three quarters were +12.1% and +22.7%, respectively; the company maintained the highest retail sales volume in the industry in Australia, the Philippines, and Myanmar, ranked second in Saudi Arabia, and third in Vietnam, Thailand, South Korea, Brazil and Argentina.
International shipments of mini LED TVs are growing at an impressive rate, and domestic growth is strong, catalyzed by the trade-in policy. Global shipments of TCL Mini LED TVs in the first three quarters of 2024 were +162.8% year-on-year, of which: 1) Domestic market: Shipments in the first three quarters of 2024 were +181.1% year-on-year, accounting for 11.0% (+6.9pct), achieving a beautiful growth rate in shipments, and the significant increase in share mainly benefited from the home appliance trade-in policy. 2) International market: Shipments in the first three quarters of 2024 were +144.9% year-on-year, maintaining strong growth.
Investment advice: On the industry side, demand for high-end large-screen products in the global TV market is strong. At the same time, panel production capacity is transferred to Chinese investors, and the concentration of Chinese TV brands is expected to break through in the future; in addition, industries such as photovoltaics and AR/XR are growing rapidly. On the company side, as a leader in the global TV industry, the share of smart screens and the share of high-end large-screen products continues to increase, the profitability of the Internet business is steady, innovative businesses such as photovoltaics and all-category marketing are developing rapidly, and brand power continues to improve; internal efficiency continues to be optimized to help the company's revenue performance grow; at the same time, domestic business is expected to benefit from the catalytic exchange policy of home appliances to achieve further growth. We estimate that in 2024-2026, the company's net profit to mother will be HK$1.415/1.61/1.931 billion, and the corresponding EPS will be HK$0.56/0.64/0.77, respectively. The PE corresponding to the current stock price is 10.64/9.35/7.79 times, respectively. Maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: declining demand in overseas markets, fluctuating prices of raw materials such as panels, fluctuating exchange rates, intensifying market competition, falling short of expectations in new business development, technology iteration, etc.