维持增持。公司前三季度营收 57.3 亿元/+38.5%，归母净利 2.78 亿元/-3.11%，扣非2.58 亿元/-17.4%；其中Q3 单季度营收20.1 亿元/+34.5%，归母净利1.06 亿元/+5.44%，扣非0.99 亿元/-1.46%。维持预测公司2024-26 年EPS 为0.93/1.35/1.75 元增速-10/45/30%，维持目标价22 元，维持增持。Introduction to this report:
Q3 revenue continued to increase and profits improved significantly. We are looking forward to the Q4 peak season performance.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an increase in holdings. The company's revenue for the first three quarters was 5.73 billion yuan/ +38.5%, net profit of 0.278 billion yuan/ -3.11%, not 0.258 billion yuan/ -17.4%; of these, Q3 single quarter revenue was 2.01 billion yuan/ +34.5%, net profit to mother 0.106 billion yuan/ +5.44%, less 0.099 billion yuan/ -1.46%. Maintain the forecast that the company's EPS will grow at 0.93/1.35/1.75 yuan in 2024-26 - 10/45/ 30%, maintain the target price of 22 yuan, and maintain the increase in holdings.
Q3 Revenue continued to grow at a high level, and performance improved markedly. 1) Q1-3 revenue growth rates were 45.3/36.6/ 34.5%, respectively, and net profit growth rates were 15.1/-27.9/ +5.44%, respectively, after deducting non-growth rates of 13.6/-50.4/ -1.46%, and the Q3 performance side improved significantly; 2) gross profit margin for the first three quarters 35.1% /-1.76pct, net profit margin 4.85% /-2.08pc, Q3 was 35.4/ 5.28% in the single quarter, we think due to improvements in freight, etc.; 3) Expense ratio 29.8% /+2.05pct, of which sales/ Management/finance/R&D expense ratios were 24.7/3.63/0.52/ 0.94%, compared with +1.77/-0.25pct; 4) inventory of 1.365 billion yuan as of the end of Q3 was +55.3% compared to the beginning of the year, mainly due to increased stocking; 5) operating cash flow 0.883 billion yuan/ +19.8%.
The three-quarter report plans to give back dividends to shareholders, and we look forward to outstanding performance during the Q4 peak season. 1) The company plans to pay a dividend of about 40.15 million yuan, based on distributable profit at the end of Q3, with a dividend rate of about 34%; 2) In order to accelerate the “serialization, omni-channel, and one inventory” business transformation, the company appointed Mr. Chen Xing, the deputy general manager, as Chief Operating Officer (COO). We are optimistic that the future will strengthen supply and marketing coordination capabilities and improve overall operational efficiency and profitability; 3) November to December will enter the peak consumption season in Europe and the US (Thanksgiving Day/Black Five Network/Christmas). We expect 2023Q4's revenue to account for about 32% of the whole year. It is expected to maintain a high level of growth.
Profit margins are expected to continue to rise, and we are optimistic about long-term brand strategies. 1) According to the September China export container transportation market analysis report, the average value of China's export to the US West and the US East route freight index in September was 1337/1468 points, respectively, down 9.7% and 14.1% from the previous month; considering the sequential landing of new ship deliveries and pre-exports, subsequent freight rates were affected or gradually reduced; 2) Furthermore, considering factors such as strengthening the warehouse layout, expanding the resources of high-quality suppliers in Southeast Asia, and the launch of new products, I am optimistic that profit margins will continue to rise; 3) Brand consolidation will establish core value.
Risk warning: international trade friction and logistics risks, increased industry competition, etc.
