Boston Beer Company, Inc. (NYSE:SAM) reported third-quarter results, with net revenue increasing 0.6% to $605.5 million and a gross margin of 46.3%, rising 60 basis points year over year.
Piper Sandler analyst Michael S. Lavery increased the price forecast to $330 from $325, with an Overweight rating.
The analyst sees potential growth from the national rollout of Hard Mtn Dew within its own distribution network, primarily in 2025.
While transition disruptions have been more significant than expected, Hard Mtn Dew sales did increase in the third quarter of 2024, the analyst adds.
Per Lavery, the company is well-positioned to maintain shelf space during the Spring 2025 resets, contrasting with a 4% decline in 2024.
This improvement has been aided by replacing some declining or rationalized Truly SKUs with new offerings, including Truly Unruly and Twisted Tea Extreme, both with an 8% ABV compared to the 5% ABV of the original line.
The analyst adds that new products, particularly those with higher alcohol by volume (ABV), are performing well.
Consumer interest has been shown in its limited distribution area, with estimates suggesting potential sales of $150 million to $300 million by 2025, although the analyst's current projection is just under $100 million.
Lavery raised the 2024 EPS estimates from $8.50 to $9.40 and the FY25 EPS estimates from $11.75 to $12.
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RBC Capital Markets analyst Nik Modi reiterated the Sector Perform rating, with a price forecast of $318.
According to Modi, the firm is effectively "controlling the controllables," which is supporting margin expansion even though volumes are down year-over-year.
As 2025 approaches, the analyst acknowledges ongoing challenges with volume growth but anticipates modest gains primarily from Twisted Tea. While Sun Cruiser is seen as promising, Truly is still viewed as a work in progress.
The analyst raised the FY25 adjusted EPS estimate from $11.00 to $11.21.
Price Action: SAM shares are trading higher by 0.25% to $302.62 at last check Friday.
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